Blockchain Charts

AITD class lesson 4: Mining will bring fortune, Consensus will generate value faster.

AITD class lesson 4: Mining will bring fortune, Consensus will generate value faster.
As we all know, Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency, there is no central currency publisher. The question is that how first Bitcoin was generated if there are no publishers for Bitcoin.
The answer is: Through Mining.
https://preview.redd.it/ebm9zfvbotr51.jpg?width=640&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=798802bf75101284a9e6b111a66188c2b9b78d2a
In January of 2009, Bitcoin father Satoshi nakamoto got the First Genesis Block through data mining on Bitcoin network and received 50 Bitcoins as rewards, therefore, first set of Bitcoins was official revealed. Since then, more and more Bitcoin mining labors started mining,as a result, they got tones of Bitcoins.
Mining is not like real mining in Bitcoin, it depends on the consensus algorithm from Bitcoin networks, using mining machine continuously to calculate Block password. The mining machine which gets the correct answer will unlock Blocks and get Bitcoins ( In the Block) as rewards.
The whole mining processes are kind of like purchase lottery, people who gets more numbers will get higher chance to match the winning number; The differences are that there are no second position prizes or third position prizes and people can not share prizes with other people.
After explaining mining, let's take a look at consensus algorithm we mention earlier. The whole mining processes will count on consensus algorithm to process, we can consider consensus algorithm as “ Mining rules".
Let's take Bitcoin as an example. POW algorithm used in Bitcoin network can be simply considering as contribution force algorithm . The algorithm requires that every single node has the right to start mining, it is the computing processes for Block password; In Blockchain Industry, it usually consider continuously computing processes for nodes mining as Hashrate contribution, unlock Blocks, gaining Bitcoin rewards possibilities will be higher if node's Hashrate contribution is higher.
In the beginning period of Bitcoin, the difficulty is not high for mining, mining labor can unlocked Blocks easily and got rewards, as Bitcoin consensus is getting stronger, more and more people are starting joining mining Bitcoins.
Difficulty will be higher if there are more competitors, Hashrate consumed by mining machine will be higher, at the same time, due to output has been cut into half for Bitcoin blocks, the profits from mining are continuously compressing, the Hashrate resources waste caused by POW algorithm was causing criticism from public.
According to the developing Blockchain techniques, members within the industry are looking for low cost mining mode, therefore, POS, DPOS, POC algorithms started continuously appearing. These algorithms are getting ride of contribution forces algorithm from Bitcoin, building "Gaining Bitcoin will generate revenue""Small amount of witnesses are starting mining for blocks", "Disc capacity prove" multiple mining methods, enabling digital currency to apply in various scenarios.( Detail transformation processes will be explained in the next episode.)
Currently, Consensus algorithm is transforming to simplify procedures, reducing resources usage direction, Only improved algorithm mechanism will get strong consensus. In the future, there will be many more algorithms appearing in the market, mining procedure will be simpler, fair, energy reduced.
Next episode preview: The transformation path for consensus algorithm mechanism.
submitted by AITDBlockchai to u/AITDBlockchai [link] [comments]

3 months later. How the profitability of mining changed after halving

3 months later. How the profitability of mining changed after halving

3 months later. How the profitability of mining changed after halving
On May 11, the size of the Bitcoin mining reward fell by half. The next time it will be in 2024. What devices will be profitable by that time, and what to hope for owners of obsolete equipment.
In May 2020, a halving took place on the bitcoin network. The cryptocurrency mining reward has decreased from 12.5 to 6.25 BTC. This is a long-awaited event, which, according to the hopes of the crypto community, should lead to a strong increase in the value of the coin. For example, Anthony Pompliano, co-founder of investment company Morgan Creek Digital, predicted that the rate would rise to $100,000 by the end of 2021, primarily due to lower mining rewards.
So far, the bitcoin price hasn’t responded to the halving as much as expected. In mid-May, at the time of the reduction in the mining reward, the BTC rate was around $9,000. To date, the cryptocurrency has risen in price by 27%. This year’s high was set yesterday, August 18, at $12,400.
The hashrate of the cryptocurrency network showed a different dynamics. Its value fell immediately after the halving from 137.5 to 87 EH/s, according to bitinfocharts.com. Since mining bitcoins has become less profitable, some of the miners probably turned off their equipment. They could switch to mining other coins or completely abandon this activity due to its unprofitability.
Later, when the BTC rate began to rise, the amount of computing power in the coin’s network also began to increase. So, from late May to mid-August, the cryptocurrency hash rate increased from 87 to 130 EH/s. But over the past three days, the figure has dropped sharply by 20%, caused by floods in China. Torrential rains in Sichuan province caused power outages that interfered with the operation of mining farms.
Changes in hashrate and mining rewards have affected its difficulty. On May 11, at the time of the halving, this figure was at around 16.1 T. By the current moment, this value has increased to 16.9 T, in July rising to a maximum of 17.3 T.
The decline in the reward for mining cryptocurrency was partially offset by the increase in fees. Until May, a single BTC transfer cost the user an average of 50 cents. By the current moment, commissions have grown more than 10 times, to $5.5.
Mining profitability is now at around 0.114 THash/s. It fell sharply immediately after the halving from 0.16 to 0.08 THash/s. To date, the indicator has grown by 40%. This was due to the rise in BTC prices and higher fees.
Development Director at BitCluster Dmitry Shuvaev said that the profitability of the device for mining BTC s17–73Th/s is now about 8 thousand rubles per month (at an electricity price of 3.5 rubles per kWh). The payback period is about 15 months. Old devices, such as the Antminer S9, are now unprofitable to use, they do not bring profit. But this situation may change if the bitcoin rate rises to $15,000.
“We recommend our customers to buy the new generation S17 or S19 devices. It is these devices that will provide profitability until the next halving. Their break-even point is at $6,000 per bitcoin”, Shuvaev said.
In June, specialists from the research division of the BitMEX exchange announced that in the long term, 2–3 ASIC miner manufacturers will remain in the industry. Canaan’s Avalon devices were the first to hit the market in 2014. Three years later, in 2017, Bitmain took 75% of the market.
Subscribe to our Telegram channel
submitted by Smart_Smell to Robopay [link] [comments]

ETH Hashrate Reaches 20-Month High Amid DeFi Tokens Price Surge

ETH Hashrate Reaches 20-Month High Amid DeFi Tokens Price Surge

Crypto Traders` Optimism Suggests Ethereum Price Will Continue To Increase Throughout The Year
Еthereum’s network hashrate, or the computing power of the network, reached a new high, surpassing the levels which Ethereum reached last year. Data from Etherscan shows that Ethereum’s network reached levels of over 201,000,000 GH/s. In 2019, the computing power of Ethereum peaked at about 200,000,000 GH/s.
Source: Etherscan
The hash rate record is a result of an increased demand for ETH, which dates back from mid-June this year. The reason for the increased demand is the relatively new DeFi sector, as the majority of the DeFi projects are based on the ETH network, and more and more users are utilizing DeFi platforms. In turn, this leads to clogging up the Ethereum network.
The result of the bottleneck on ETH network is increased transaction fees, which are currently around the all-time record high level, and are a result of spikes in transactions of DeFi assets. When looking at ETH transactions fees, there is a drastic rise from only $0,84 in January 2020, to exceeding the $3 mark as of press time.
Crypto experts have mixed opinions about whether the increase of hashrates is good or bad for the Ethereum ecosystem. Nevertheless, the increase of hashrate means more Ethereum miners are joining the competition for transaction validations. Also, hashrate increases because of higher mining rewards, especially in times of network congestion, where miners put higher transaction fees for validating blocks.
Source: Glassnode
The higher transaction fees directly result in more profits for miners, especially when the DeFi sector is blooming. Higher miner revenues would attract more miners to join the race, which would push hashrate to even higher values. However, the current hashrate levels are still way below the mid-2018 record of 295,911.9974 GH/s, recorded on August 9, 2018.
The recent DeFi boom, however, managed to outpace Bitcoin in terms of transaction fees. Kraken-owned crypto data provider noted that: “on-chain transaction fees on Ethereum continue to outpace Bitcoin and the gap is now up to $1 million a day”. However, some crypto experts expressed concerns that higher fees may have a negative effect on users` experience and usage of Ethereum’s network.
Source: CoinMetrics
Meanwhile, the DeFi ecosystem marks another week of growth. Chainlink (LINK), for example, managed to hit another all-time high, reaching a price of $17.86. Chainlink also managed to surpass cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and Bitcoin SV (BSV), based on market capitalization. The price explosion means LINK is up 64% over the past week, while the crypto leader, Bitcoin, slipped with 2 percent. Because of the DeFi boom, Bitcoin also managed to lose a part of its dominance, currently sitting at little over 60%.
Tezos (XTZ) also made a huge leap, hitting its all-time high of $4.48 on August 13, 2020. The upwards rally for the 11th largest cryptocurrency began on August 8 and is continuing to grow exponentially.
submitted by Crypto_Browser to CryptoBrowser_EN [link] [comments]

Where is Bitcoin Going and When?

Where is Bitcoin Going and When?

The Federal Reserve and the United States government are pumping extreme amounts of money into the economy, already totaling over $484 billion. They are doing so because it already had a goal to inflate the United States Dollar (USD) so that the market can continue to all-time highs. It has always had this goal. They do not care how much inflation goes up by now as we are going into a depression with the potential to totally crash the US economy forever. They believe the only way to save the market from going to zero or negative values is to inflate it so much that it cannot possibly crash that low. Even if the market does not dip that low, inflation serves the interest of powerful people.
The impending crash of the stock market has ramifications for Bitcoin, as, though there is no direct ongoing-correlation between the two, major movements in traditional markets will necessarily affect Bitcoin. According to the Blockchain Center’s Cryptocurrency Correlation Tool, Bitcoin is not correlated with the stock market. However, when major market movements occur, they send ripples throughout the financial ecosystem which necessary affect even ordinarily uncorrelated assets.
Therefore, Bitcoin will reach X price on X date after crashing to a price of X by X date.

Stock Market Crash

The Federal Reserve has caused some serious consternation with their release of ridiculous amounts of money in an attempt to buoy the economy. At face value, it does not seem to have any rationale or logic behind it other than keeping the economy afloat long enough for individuals to profit financially and politically. However, there is an underlying basis to what is going on which is important to understand in order to profit financially.
All markets are functionally price probing systems. They constantly undergo a price-discovery process. In a fiat system, money is an illusory and a fundamentally synthetic instrument with no intrinsic value – similar to Bitcoin. The primary difference between Bitcoin is the underlying technology which provides a slew of benefits that fiat does not. Fiat, however, has an advantage in being able to have the support of powerful nation-states which can use their might to insure the currency’s prosperity.
Traditional stock markets are composed of indices (pl. of index). Indices are non-trading market instruments which are essentially summaries of business values which comprise them. They are continuously recalculated throughout a trading day, and sometimes reflected through tradable instruments such as Exchange Traded Funds or Futures. Indices are weighted by market capitalizations of various businesses.
Price theory essentially states that when a market fails to take out a new low in a given range, it will have an objective to take out the high. When a market fails to take out a new high, it has an objective to make a new low. This is why price-time charts go up and down, as it does this on a second-by-second, minute-by-minute, day-by-day, and even century-by-century basis. Therefore, market indices will always return to some type of bull market as, once a true low is formed, the market will have a price objective to take out a new high outside of its’ given range – which is an all-time high. Instruments can only functionally fall to zero, whereas they can grow infinitely.
So, why inflate the economy so much?
Deflation is disastrous for central banks and markets as it raises the possibility of producing an overall price objective of zero or negative values. Therefore, under a fractional reserve system with a fiat currency managed by a central bank – the goal of the central bank is to depreciate the currency. The dollar is manipulated constantly with the intention of depreciating its’ value.
Central banks have a goal of continued inflated fiat values. They tend to ordinarily contain it at less than ten percent (10%) per annum in order for the psyche of the general populace to slowly adjust price increases. As such, the markets are divorced from any other logic. Economic policy is the maintenance of human egos, not catering to fundamental analysis. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is well-known not to be a measure of actual growth or output. It is a measure of increase in dollars processed. Banks seek to produce raising numbers which make society feel like it is growing economically, making people optimistic. To do so, the currency is inflated, though inflation itself does not actually increase growth. When society is optimistic, it spends and engages in business – resulting in actual growth. It also encourages people to take on credit and debts, creating more fictional fiat.
Inflation is necessary for markets to continue to reach new heights, generating positive emotional responses from the populace, encouraging spending, encouraging debt intake, further inflating the currency, and increasing the sale of government bonds. The fiat system only survives by generating more imaginary money on a regular basis.
Bitcoin investors may profit from this by realizing that stock investors as a whole always stand to profit from the market so long as it is managed by a central bank and does not collapse entirely. If those elements are filled, it has an unending price objective to raise to new heights. It also allows us to realize that this response indicates that the higher-ups believe that the economy could crash in entirety, and it may be wise for investors to have multiple well-thought-out exit strategies.

Economic Analysis of Bitcoin

The reason why the Fed is so aggressively inflating the economy is due to fears that it will collapse forever or never rebound. As such, coupled with a global depression, a huge demand will appear for a reserve currency which is fundamentally different than the previous system. Bitcoin, though a currency or asset, is also a market. It also undergoes a constant price-probing process. Unlike traditional markets, Bitcoin has the exact opposite goal. Bitcoin seeks to appreciate in value and not depreciate. This has a quite different affect in that Bitcoin could potentially become worthless and have a price objective of zero.
Bitcoin was created in 2008 by a now famous mysterious figure known as Satoshi Nakamoto and its’ open source code was released in 2009. It was the first decentralized cryptocurrency to utilize a novel protocol known as the blockchain. Up to one megabyte of data may be sent with each transaction. It is decentralized, anonymous, transparent, easy to set-up, and provides myriad other benefits. Bitcoin is not backed up by anything other than its’ own technology.
Bitcoin is can never be expected to collapse as a framework, even were it to become worthless. The stock market has the potential to collapse in entirety, whereas, as long as the internet exists, Bitcoin will be a functional system with a self-authenticating framework. That capacity to persist regardless of the actual price of Bitcoin and the deflationary nature of Bitcoin means that it has something which fiat does not – inherent value.
Bitcoin is based on a distributed database known as the “blockchain.” Blockchains are essentially decentralized virtual ledger books, replete with pages known as “blocks.” Each page in a ledger is composed of paragraph entries, which are the actual transactions in the block.
Blockchains store information in the form of numerical transactions, which are just numbers. We can consider these numbers digital assets, such as Bitcoin. The data in a blockchain is immutable and recorded only by consensus-based algorithms. Bitcoin is cryptographic and all transactions are direct, without intermediary, peer-to-peer.
Bitcoin does not require trust in a central bank. It requires trust on the technology behind it, which is open-source and may be evaluated by anyone at any time. Furthermore, it is impossible to manipulate as doing so would require all of the nodes in the network to be hacked at once – unlike the stock market which is manipulated by the government and “Market Makers”. Bitcoin is also private in that, though the ledge is openly distributed, it is encrypted. Bitcoin’s blockchain has one of the greatest redundancy and information disaster recovery systems ever developed.
Bitcoin has a distributed governance model in that it is controlled by its’ users. There is no need to trust a payment processor or bank, or even to pay fees to such entities. There are also no third-party fees for transaction processing. As the ledge is immutable and transparent it is never possible to change it – the data on the blockchain is permanent. The system is not easily susceptible to attacks as it is widely distributed. Furthermore, as users of Bitcoin have their private keys assigned to their transactions, they are virtually impossible to fake. No lengthy verification, reconciliation, nor clearing process exists with Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is based on a proof-of-work algorithm. Every transaction on the network has an associated mathetical “puzzle”. Computers known as miners compete to solve the complex cryptographic hash algorithm that comprises that puzzle. The solution is proof that the miner engaged in sufficient work. The puzzle is known as a nonce, a number used only once. There is only one major nonce at a time and it issues 12.5 Bitcoin. Once it is solved, the fact that the nonce has been solved is made public.
A block is mined on average of once every ten minutes. However, the blockchain checks every 2,016,000 minutes (approximately four years) if 201,600 blocks were mined. If it was faster, it increases difficulty by half, thereby deflating Bitcoin. If it was slower, it decreases, thereby inflating Bitcoin. It will continue to do this until zero Bitcoin are issued, projected at the year 2140. On the twelfth of May, 2020, the blockchain will halve the amount of Bitcoin issued when each nonce is guessed. When Bitcoin was first created, fifty were issued per block as a reward to miners. 6.25 BTC will be issued from that point on once each nonce is solved.
Unlike fiat, Bitcoin is a deflationary currency. As BTC becomes scarcer, demand for it will increase, also raising the price. In this, BTC is similar to gold. It is predictable in its’ output, unlike the USD, as it is based on a programmed supply. We can predict BTC’s deflation and inflation almost exactly, if not exactly. Only 21 million BTC will ever be produced, unless the entire network concedes to change the protocol – which is highly unlikely.
Some of the drawbacks to BTC include congestion. At peak congestion, it may take an entire day to process a Bitcoin transaction as only three to five transactions may be processed per second. Receiving priority on a payment may cost up to the equivalent of twenty dollars ($20). Bitcoin mining consumes enough energy in one day to power a single-family home for an entire week.

Trading or Investing?

The fundamental divide in trading revolves around the question of market structure. Many feel that the market operates totally randomly and its’ behavior cannot be predicted. For the purposes of this article, we will assume that the market has a structure, but that that structure is not perfect. That market structure naturally generates chart patterns as the market records prices in time. In order to determine when the stock market will crash, causing a major decline in BTC price, we will analyze an instrument, an exchange traded fund, which represents an index, as opposed to a particular stock. The price patterns of the various stocks in an index are effectively smoothed out. In doing so, a more technical picture arises. Perhaps the most popular of these is the SPDR S&P Standard and Poor 500 Exchange Traded Fund ($SPY).
In trading, little to no concern is given about value of underlying asset. We are concerned primarily about liquidity and trading ranges, which are the amount of value fluctuating on a short-term basis, as measured by volatility-implied trading ranges. Fundamental analysis plays a role, however markets often do not react to real-world factors in a logical fashion. Therefore, fundamental analysis is more appropriate for long-term investing.
The fundamental derivatives of a chart are time (x-axis) and price (y-axis). The primary technical indicator is price, as everything else is lagging in the past. Price represents current asking price and incorrectly implementing positions based on price is one of the biggest trading errors.
Markets and currencies ordinarily have noise, their tendency to back-and-fill, which must be filtered out for true pattern recognition. That noise does have a utility, however, in allowing traders second chances to enter favorable positions at slightly less favorable entry points. When you have any market with enough liquidity for historical data to record a pattern, then a structure can be divined. The market probes prices as part of an ongoing price-discovery process. Market technicians must sometimes look outside of the technical realm and use visual inspection to ascertain the relevance of certain patterns, using a qualitative eye that recognizes the underlying quantitative nature
Markets and instruments rise slower than they correct, however they rise much more than they fall. In the same vein, instruments can only fall to having no worth, whereas they could theoretically grow infinitely and have continued to grow over time. Money in a fiat system is illusory. It is a fundamentally synthetic instrument which has no intrinsic value. Hence, the recent seemingly illogical fluctuations in the market.
According to trade theory, the unending purpose of a market or instrument is to create and break price ranges according to the laws of supply and demand. We must determine when to trade based on each market inflection point as defined in price and in time as opposed to abandoning the trend (as the contrarian trading in this sub often does). Time and Price symmetry must be used to be in accordance with the trend. When coupled with a favorable risk to reward ratio, the ability to stay in the market for most of the defined time period, and adherence to risk management rules; the trader has a solid methodology for achieving considerable gains.
We will engage in a longer term market-oriented analysis to avoid any time-focused pressure. The Bitcoin market is open twenty-four-hours a day, so trading may be done when the individual is ready, without any pressing need to be constantly alert. Let alone, we can safely project months in advance with relatively high accuracy. Bitcoin is an asset which an individual can both trade and invest, however this article will be focused on trading due to the wide volatility in BTC prices over the short-term.

Technical Indicator Analysis of Bitcoin

Technical indicators are often considered self-fulfilling prophecies due to mass-market psychology gravitating towards certain common numbers yielded from them. They are also often discounted when it comes to BTC. That means a trader must be especially aware of these numbers as they can prognosticate market movements. Often, they are meaningless in the larger picture of things.
  • Volume – derived from the market itself, it is mostly irrelevant. The major problem with volume for stocks is that the US market open causes tremendous volume surges eradicating any intrinsic volume analysis. This does not occur with BTC, as it is open twenty-four-seven. At major highs and lows, the market is typically anemic. Most traders are not active at terminal discretes (peaks and troughs) because of levels of fear. Volume allows us confidence in time and price symmetry market inflection points, if we observe low volume at a foretold range of values. We can rationalize that an absolute discrete is usually only discovered and anticipated by very few traders. As the general market realizes it, a herd mentality will push the market in the direction favorable to defending it. Volume is also useful for swing trading, as chances for swing’s validity increases if an increase in volume is seen on and after the swing’s activation. Volume is steadily decreasing. Lows and highs are reached when volume is lower.
Therefore, due to the relatively high volume on the 12th of March, we can safely determine that a low for BTC was not reached.
  • VIX – Volatility Index, this technical indicator indicates level of fear by the amount of options-based “insurance” in portfolios. A low VIX environment, less than 20 for the S&P index, indicates a stable market with a possible uptrend. A high VIX, over 20, indicates a possible downtrend. VIX is essentially useless for BTC as BTC-based options do not exist. It allows us to predict the market low for $SPY, which will have an indirect impact on BTC in the short term, likely leading to the yearly low. However, it is equally important to see how VIX is changing over time, if it is decreasing or increasing, as that indicates increasing or decreasing fear. Low volatility allows high leverage without risk or rest. Occasionally, markets do rise with high VIX.
As VIX is unusually high, in the forties, we can be confident that a downtrend for the S&P 500 is imminent.
  • RSI (Relative Strength Index): The most important technical indicator, useful for determining highs and lows when time symmetry is not availing itself. Sometimes analysis of RSI can conflict in different time frames, easiest way to use it is when it is at extremes – either under 30 or over 70. Extremes can be used for filtering highs or lows based on time-and-price window calculations. Highly instructive as to major corrective clues and indicative of continued directional movement. Must determine if longer-term RSI values find support at same values as before. It is currently at 73.56.
  • Secondly, RSI may be used as a high or low filter, to observe the level that short-term RSI reaches in counter-trend corrections. Repetitions based on market movements based on RSI determine how long a trade should be held onto. Once a short term RSI reaches an extreme and stay there, the other RSI’s should gradually reach the same extremes. Once all RSI’s are at extreme highs, a trend confirmation should occur and RSI’s should drop to their midpoint.

Trend Definition Analysis of Bitcoin

Trend definition is highly powerful, cannot be understated. Knowledge of trend logic is enough to be a profitable trader, yet defining a trend is an arduous process. Multiple trends coexist across multiple time frames and across multiple market sectors. Like time structure, it makes the underlying price of the instrument irrelevant. Trend definitions cannot determine the validity of newly formed discretes. Trend becomes apparent when trades based in counter-trend inflection points continue to fail.
Downtrends are defined as an instrument making lower lows and lower highs that are recurrent, additive, qualified swing setups. Downtrends for all instruments are similar, except forex. They are fast and complete much quicker than uptrends. An average downtrend is 18 months, something which we will return to. An uptrend inception occurs when an instrument reaches a point where it fails to make a new low, then that low will be tested. After that, the instrument will either have a deep range retracement or it may take out the low slightly, resulting in a double-bottom. A swing must eventually form.
A simple way to roughly determine trend is to attempt to draw a line from three tops going upwards (uptrend) or a line from three bottoms going downwards (downtrend). It is not possible to correctly draw a downtrend line on the BTC chart, but it is possible to correctly draw an uptrend – indicating that the overall trend is downwards. The only mitigating factor is the impending stock market crash.

Time Symmetry Analysis of Bitcoin

Time is the movement from the past through the present into the future. It is a measurement in quantified intervals. In many ways, our perception of it is a human construct. It is more powerful than price as time may be utilized for a trade regardless of the market inflection point’s price. Were it possible to perfectly understand time, price would be totally irrelevant due to the predictive certainty time affords. Time structure is easier to learn than price, but much more difficult to apply with any accuracy. It is the hardest aspect of trading to learn, but also the most rewarding.
Humans do not have the ability to recognize every time window, however the ability to define market inflection points in terms of time is the single most powerful trading edge. Regardless, price should not be abandoned for time alone. Time structure analysis It is inherently flawed, as such the markets have a fail-safe, which is Price Structure. Even though Time is much more powerful, Price Structure should never be completely ignored. Time is the qualifier for Price and vice versa. Time can fail by tricking traders into counter-trend trading.
Time is a predestined trade quantifier, a filter to slow trades down, as it allows a trader to specifically focus on specific time windows and rest at others. It allows for quantitative measurements to reach deterministic values and is the primary qualifier for trends. Time structure should be utilized before price structure, and it is the primary trade criterion which requires support from price. We can see price structure on a chart, as areas of mathematical support or resistance, but we cannot see time structure.
Time may be used to tell us an exact point in the future where the market will inflect, after Price Theory has been fulfilled. In the present, price objectives based on price theory added to possible future times for market inflection points give us the exact time of market inflection points and price.
Time Structure is repetitions of time or inherent cycles of time, occurring in a methodical way to provide time windows which may be utilized for inflection points. They are not easily recognized and not easily defined by a price chart as measuring and observing time is very exact. Time structure is not a science, yet it does require precise measurements. Nothing is certain or definite. The critical question must be if a particular approach to time structure is currently lucrative or not.
We will measure it in intervals of 180 bars. Our goal is to determine time windows, when the market will react and when we should pay the most attention. By using time repetitions, the fact that market inflection points occurred at some point in the past and should, therefore, reoccur at some point in the future, we should obtain confidence as to when SPY will reach a market inflection point. Time repetitions are essentially the market’s memory. However, simply measuring the time between two points then trying to extrapolate into the future does not work. Measuring time is not the same as defining time repetitions. We will evaluate past sessions for market inflection points, whether discretes, qualified swings, or intra-range. Then records the times that the market has made highs or lows in a comparable time period to the future one seeks to trade in.
What follows is a time Histogram – A grouping of times which appear close together, then segregated based on that closeness. Time is aligned into combined histogram of repetitions and cycles, however cycles are irrelevant on a daily basis. If trading on an hourly basis, do not use hours.
  • Yearly Lows (last seven years): 1/1/13, 4/10/14, 1/15/15, 1/17/16, 1/1/17, 12/15/18, 2/6/19
  • Monthly Mode: 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 4, 12
  • Daily Mode: 1, 1, 6, 10, 15, 15, 17
  • Monthly Lows (for the last year): 3/12/20 (10:00pm), 2/28/20 (7:09am), 1/2/20 (8:09pm), 12/18/19 (8:00am), 11/25/19 (1:00am), 10/24/19 (2:59am), 9/30/19 (2:59am), 8/29,19 (4:00am), 7/17/19 (7:59am), 6/4/19 (5:59pm), 5/1/19 (12:00am), 4/1/19 (12:00am)
  • Daily Lows Mode for those Months: 1, 1, 2, 4, 12, 17, 18, 24, 25, 28, 29, 30
  • Hourly Lows Mode for those Months (Military time): 0100, 0200, 0200, 0400, 0700, 0700, 0800, 1200, 1200, 1700, 2000, 2200
  • Minute Lows Mode for those Months: 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 09, 09, 59, 59, 59, 59
  • Day of the Week Lows (last twenty-six weeks):
Weighted Times are repetitions which appears multiple times within the same list, observed and accentuated once divided into relevant sections of the histogram. They are important in the presently defined trading time period and are similar to a mathematical mode with respect to a series. Phased times are essentially periodical patterns in histograms, though they do not guarantee inflection points
Evaluating the yearly lows, we see that BTC tends to have its lows primarily at the beginning of every year, with a possibility of it being at the end of the year. Following the same methodology, we get the middle of the month as the likeliest day. However, evaluating the monthly lows for the past year, the beginning and end of the month are more likely for lows.
Therefore, we have two primary dates from our histogram.
1/1/21, 1/15/21, and 1/29/21
2:00am, 8:00am, 12:00pm, or 10:00pm
In fact, the high for this year was February the 14th, only thirty days off from our histogram calculations.
The 8.6-Year Armstrong-Princeton Global Economic Confidence model states that 2.15 year intervals occur between corrections, relevant highs and lows. 2.15 years from the all-time peak discrete is February 9, 2020 – a reasonably accurate depiction of the low for this year (which was on 3/12/20). (Taking only the Armstrong model into account, the next high should be Saturday, April 23, 2022). Therefore, the Armstrong model indicates that we have actually bottomed out for the year!
Bear markets cannot exist in perpetuity whereas bull markets can. Bear markets will eventually have price objectives of zero, whereas bull markets can increase to infinity. It can occur for individual market instruments, but not markets as a whole. Since bull markets are defined by low volatility, they also last longer. Once a bull market is indicated, the trader can remain in a long position until a new high is reached, then switch to shorts. The average bear market is eighteen months long, giving us a date of August 19th, 2021 for the end of this bear market – roughly speaking. They cannot be shorter than fifteen months for a central-bank controlled market, which does not apply to Bitcoin. (Otherwise, it would continue until Sunday, September 12, 2021.) However, we should expect Bitcoin to experience its’ exponential growth after the stock market re-enters a bull market.
Terry Laundy’s T-Theory implemented by measuring the time of an indicator from peak to trough, then using that to define a future time window. It is similar to an head-and-shoulders pattern in that it is the process of forming the right side from a synthetic technical indicator. If the indicator is making continued lows, then time is recalculated for defining the right side of the T. The date of the market inflection point may be a price or indicator inflection date, so it is not always exactly useful. It is better to make us aware of possible market inflection points, clustered with other data. It gives us an RSI low of May, 9th 2020.
The Bradley Cycle is coupled with volatility allows start dates for campaigns or put options as insurance in portfolios for stocks. However, it is also useful for predicting market moves instead of terminal dates for discretes. Using dates which correspond to discretes, we can see how those dates correspond with changes in VIX.
Therefore, our timeline looks like:
  • 2/14/20 – yearly high ($10372 USD)
  • 3/12/20 – yearly low thus far ($3858 USD)
  • 5/9/20 – T-Theory true yearly low (BTC between 4863 and 3569)
  • 5/26/20 – hashrate difficulty halvening
  • 11/14/20 – stock market low
  • 1/15/21 – yearly low for BTC, around $8528
  • 8/19/21 – end of stock bear market
  • 11/26/21 – eighteen months from halvening, average peak from halvenings (BTC begins rising from $3000 area to above $23,312)
  • 4/23/22 – all-time high
Taken from my blog: http://aliamin.info/2020/
submitted by aibnsamin1 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Hashrate Has Hit a New Record-High Again, Here's Why It's Optimistic

The total hash rate of the Bitcoin blockchain network has hit an all-time high, demonstrating an optimistic after the halving. Bitcoin’s third block reward halving in history occurred on May 11, 2020. Immediately after, its hash rate dropped from 121 million terahash per second (TH/s) to 90 million TH/S. The rapid recovery of Bitcoin’s hash rate shows that the mining sector is healthy, which could lead to market stability. A positive catalyst for Bitcoin in the medium-term Following a block reward halving, the hash rate of the Bitcoin network tends to drop substantially. The halving drops the amount of BTC miners can produce by half, causing their revenues to decline. When miners struggle with recurring expenses as a result of lower BTC production, they typically sell their BTC reserves. In the short-term, until a major difficulty adjustment occurs, the risk of miner capitulation or massive selling pressure is low. Alejandro De La Torre, the vice president of Poolin, explained that older machines have become profitable as well. That means even individual miners could be profitable and are likely less compelled to sell BTC. Torre explained: “Yesterday's two-week difficulty re-adjustment saw a decrease of - 2.87% & an average hash rate of 120.57 EH/s. What's interesting here is that the hashrate continues to increase, definitely related to the current #bitcoin price - older machines are profitable again.” Consequently, Torre said the hash rate of the Bitcoin network would likely continue to increase. The difficulty to mine BTC is lower than in previous weeks, and the price of BTC is above $11,000. He noted: “Difficulty is now lower than the last two weeks from 17.35T to 16.85T and the price is much higher so expect strong hashing for the next two weeks, all dependent of the price at the end of the day.” A record-high hash rate merely three months after the halving can be considered an optimistic trend. It shows that due to varying factors, which includes cheaper electricity in Sichuan, China, the mining industry is stable. Many large mining centers are based in Sichuan. Due to the rainy season and the presence of hydropower plants, lower-cost electricity is available for miners. Optimistic market cycle According to data from ByteTree, the net inventory of miners over the past five weeks is hovering at 30 BTC. The data shows that miners have not sold more than they mine, which leads to less selling pressure on BTC. Relatively low selling pressure from miners is a positive factor that could allow BTC to sustain its strong momentum. It also indicates that Bitcoin is on track to recover from the halving before the fourth quarter of this year, demonstrating the resilience of the sector. About the author Joseph Young Joseph Young is an analyst based in South Korea that has been covering finance, fintech, and cryptocurrency since 2013. He has worked with various recognized publications in both the finance and cryptocurrency industries.
submitted by crypto4l1fe to u/crypto4l1fe [link] [comments]

The One Thing EVERYONE Must Know About the Dev Funding Plan: IT'S COMPLETELY FREE.

sigh I get so tired of having to stop working to put out a post explaining issues. If anyone else wants to join in I could use help. (actually I've seen Jonald F. do this before too, so thanks JF!)
Things are bad when even developers don't understand what's going on. So I'll try to clearly explain an important point on the Dev Funding Plan (DFP from now on) for the community: it's completely free. Yet we still get panicked posts saying Please Save Us from the TAX!!! Somebody Help!
You may be for or against the DFP, but either way please at least understand what you're forming an opinion on.
Let's start from the beginning. We know Bitcoin works on blocks and block coin rewards. The block reward, which started at 50 coins per block, and cuts in half approximately every 4 years, serves two purposes: it's a fair way to bring coins into circulation, but more importantly it provides security for the network.
For simplicity, please think of "security" as being measured in power bars. When the network first started, with just Satoshi and Hal Finney, there was 1 power bar. This power bar was made up of the electricity their combined computer hardware used to find blocks. They were the first miners. Bitcoin uses a difficulty level to adjust how hard or easy it is to find blocks. This level is important for a key reason: we want the inflation rate of coins (how fast they come into circulation) to stay about the same, regardless how many miners (computing power) suddenly comes online. If the difficulty is set at super easy, but suddenly a super computer comes online that computer can gobble up thousands of coins in minutes if not seconds, creating massive rapid inflation. So the first thing to understand is that due to the Difficulty Level Adjustment the rate of coins coming into circulation will always stay about the same, regardless how many miners join or leave the network.
Getting back to power bars. So the point of Bitcoin is there is no center, no fixed authority. The problem is we still need a decision made about which chain is valid. This is where proof-of-work comes in. Satoshi's fairly brilliant solution to a consensus decision, with no leader, was to simply look for the longest chain (technically the chain with most hashing work). The reasoning was: as there are far more ordinary people than there are governments and dictators a Bitcoin supported by the all the world's people should always be able to muster more hashrate than even rich governments.
So Bitcoin began and people saw the brilliance: even with a weak power bar level of 1 (a couple computers), Bitcoin was safe from 51% attacks and attacking govs competing for control of the chain because a super low hashrate meant Bitcoin wasn't popular and govs wouldn't bother paying attention. By the time Bitcoin was big enough for govs to worry about attacking it should also have so many participants the power bar level would be far higher, providing strong defense.
Let's say the ideal power bar level is 50,000. At this level no government on earth has enough resources to beat the grassroots network. We hear people brag about how much security BTC has. However, the marketcap for all of BTC is about $160B. Countries like the U.S. and China have GDP measured in many trillions; a trillion is 1,000 billion. Does 160B really seem untouchable? For numeric comparison the main U.S. federal food assistance program cost the government $70B in 2016, representing about 2% of the budget. So the entirety of the BTC market cap is about twice the size of one welfare program, representing 2% of the overall budget. Where should we place the current security power bars if we want guaranteed safety from a determined U.S. gov? If 50,000 is guaranteed safe we're far from it. I'd say BTC is more like 5,000. That's still pretty decent.
Of course, BCH split from BTC... and didn't carry over all the miners and accompanying security. That's not an immediate concern because if BTC isn't on government's radar yet BCH sure isn't. However, that doesn't mean BCH doesn't need security from hostile forces. It's still a valuable network and needs defenses. Where would we put power bars for BCH? If BTC is 5,000 and BCH only has 3% of that hashrate then BCH has just 150. That's it.
How the Developer Funding Plan Works
Back to the DFP. What this says is as a community we agree to break off a piece of the block reward and instead of giving 100% to miners we give a small percent to developers. If each block is 10 coins and the price is $300 then winning a block means winning $3,000. Of course that's not all profit because miners have electricity and other expenses to pay before calculating profit. So if we reduce the portion of the miner reward by 10% so they get just 9 coins per block yet the price stays the same what happens? It means miners receive $2,700 for the same effort. We've just made it more expensive to mine BCH from the point of view of miners. What would any miner then rationally do? Seek profitability elsewhere if available. Suddenly BTC SHA256 hashing looks slightly more attractive so they'll go there. Hashrate leaves BCH and goes to BTC, but the key important point is BOTH chains have a difficulty adjustment algorithm which adjusts to account for rising or lowering miners overall, which keeps the coin inflation rate steady. This means BTC total hashrate rises (more miners compete for BTC) and its Difficulty Level rises accordingly, so the same rate of BTC pumps out; on BCH total hashrate falls (less miners compete for BCH) and its Difficulty falls, so the same rate of BCH pumps out. Inflation remains about the same on both coins so the price of both coins doesn't change any, beyond what it normally does based on news/events etc.
So what difference is there? The difference is total network security. Hashrate totals have changed. BTC gains more miner securing hashrate while BCH loses it. So BTC goes from 5,000 to say 5,100 power bars. BCH goes from about 150 to 140.
Does any of that matter in the grand scheme of things? Not in the slightest. Part of the reason is due to our emergency circumstances with BCH we had to rework our security model. Our primary defense is an idea I came up with, which BitcoinABC implemented, saying it's not sheer hashpower that dictates what chain we follow. We won't replace a chain we're working on if a new one suddenly appears if it means changing more than 10 blocks deep of history. This prevents all the threatening hashrate hanging over our heads from mining a secret chain and creating havoc unleashing it causing 10+ confimed txs to be undone, while exchanges, gambling sites etc. have long since paid out real world money.
Switching $6M worth of block rewards from mining to devs just means we lose a bit of hashrate security, while we gain those funds for development. Nothing more. Nobody holding BCH pays in the form of inflation or any other way. It costs literally NOTHING BECAUSE The block reward is ALREADY ALLOCATED. It will EITHER go 100% to mining security if we do nothing, or go to both miners and devs if the plan is put into effect. Hopefully this helps.
:)
TL;DR: we switch security which we don't really need, for developer funding which we do.
submitted by cryptos4pz to btc [link] [comments]

Antminer T19 May Not Affect Bitcoin Hash Rate but Keeps Bitmain Ahead

The Antminer T19 by Bitmain may not have a big impact on the Bitcoin network, and it comes out amid the firm’s internal and post-halving uncertainty.
Earlier this week, Chinese mining-hardware juggernaut Bitmain unveiled its new product, an application-specific integrated circuit called Antminer T19. The Bitcoin (BTC) mining unit is the latest to join the new generation of ASICs — state-of-the-art devices designed to mitigate increased mining difficulty by maximizing the terahashes-per-second output.
The Antminer T19 announcement comes amid the post-halving uncertainty and follows the company’s recent problems with its S17 units. So, can this new machine help Bitmain to reinforce its somewhat hobbled position in the mining sector?
T19: The cheaper S19
According to the official announcement, the Antminer T19 features a mining speed of 84 TH/s and a power efficiency of 37.5 joules per TH. The chips used in the new device are the same as those equipped in the Antminer S19 and S19 Pro, though it uses the new APW12 version of the power supply system that allows the device to start up faster.
Bitmain usually markets its Antminer T devices as the most cost-effective ones, while the S-series models are presented as the top of the line in terms of productivity for their respective generation, Johnson Xu — the head of research and analytics at Tokensight — explained to Cointelegraph. According to data from F2Pool, one of the largest Bitcoin mining pools, Antminer T19s can generate $3.97 of profit each day, while Antminer S19s and Antminer S19 Pros can earn $4.86 and $6.24, respectively, based on an average electricity cost of $0.05 per kilowatt-hour.
Antminer T19s, which consume 3,150 watts, are being sold for $1,749 per unit. Antminer S19 machines, on the other hand, cost $1,785 and consume 3,250 watts. Antminer S19 Pro devices, the most efficient of three, are considerably more expensive and go for $2,407. The reason Bitmain is producing another model for the 19 series is due to what is known as "binning" chips, Marc Fresa — the founder of mining firmware company Asic.to — explained to Cointelegraph:
“When chips are designed they are meant to achieve specific performance levels. Chips that fail to hit their target numbers, such as not achieving the power standards or their thermal output, are often ‘Binned.’ Instead of throwing these chips in the garbage bin, these chips are resold into another unit with a lower performance level. In the case of Bitmain S19 chips that don’t make the cutoff are then sold in the T19 for cheaper since they do not perform as well as the counterpart.” The rollout of a new model “has nothing to do with the fact that machines are not selling well,” Fresa went on to argue, citing the post-halving uncertainty: “The biggest reason machines probably are not selling as well as manufacturers would like is because we are on a bit of a tipping point; The halving just happened, the price can go anyway and the difficulty is continuing to drop.” Product diversification is a common strategy for mining hardware producers, given that customers tend to aim for different specifications, Kristy-Leigh Minehan, a consultant and the former chief technology officer of Genesis Mining, told Cointelegraph:
“ASICs don’t really allow for one model as consumers expect a certain performance level from a machine, and unfortunately silicon is not a perfect process — many times you’ll get a batch that performs better or worse than projected due to the nature of the materials. Thus, you end up with 5–10 different model numbers.” It is not yet clear how efficient the 19-series devices are because they have not shipped at scale, as Leo Zhang, the founder of Anicca Research, summed up in a conversation with Cointelegraph. The first batch of S19 units reportedly shipped out around May 12, while the T19 shipments will start between June 21 and June 30. It is also worth noting that, at this time, Bitmain only sells up to two T19 miners per user “to prevent hoarding.”
Hardware problems and competitors
The latest generation of Bitmain ASICs follows the release of the S17 units, which have received mostly mixed-to-negative reviews in the community. In early May, Arseniy Grusha, the co-founder of crypto consulting and mining firm Wattum, created a Telegram group for consumers unsatisfied with the S17 units they purchased from Bitmain. As Grusha explained to Cointelegraph at the time, out of the 420 Antminer S17+ devices his company bought, roughly 30%, or around 130 machines, turned out to be bad units.
Similarly, Samson Mow, the chief strategy officer of blockchain infrastructure firm Blockstream, tweeted earlier in April that Bitmain customers have a 20%–30% failure rate with Antminer S17 and T17 units. “The Antminer 17 series is generally considered not great,” added Zhang. He additionally noted that Chinese hardware company and competitor Micro BT has been stepping on Bitmain’s toes lately with the release of its highly productive M30 series, which prompted Bitmain to step up its efforts:
“Whatsminer gained significant market share in the past two years. According to their COO, in 2019 MicroBT sold ~35% of the network hashrate. Needless to say Bitmain is under a lot of pressure both from competitors and internal politics. They have been working on the 19 series for a while. The specs and price look very attractive.” Minehan confirmed that MicroBT has been gaining traction on the market, but refrained from saying that Bitmain is losing market share as a result: “I think MicroBT is offering option and bringing in new participants, and giving farms a choice. Most farms will have both Bitmain and MicroBT side by side, rather than exclusively host one manufacturer.”
“I would say that MicroBT has taken up the existing market share that Canaan has left,” she added, referring to another China-based mining player that recently reported a net loss of $5.6 million in the first quarter of 2020 and cut the price of its mining hardware by up to 50%.
Indeed, some large-scale operations seem to be diversifying their equipment with MicroBT units. Earlier this week, United States mining firm Marathon Patent Group announced that it had installed 700 Whatsminer M30S+ ASICs produced by MicroBT. However, it is also reportedly waiting for a delivery of 1,160 Antminer S19 Pro units produced by Bitmain, meaning that it also remains loyal to the current market leader.
Will the hash rate be affected?
Bitcoin’s hash rate plummeted 30% soon after the halving occurred as much of the older generation equipment became unprofitable due to the increased mining difficulty. That spurred miners to reshuffle, upgrading their current rigs and selling older machines to places where electricity is cheaper — meaning that some of them had to temporarily unplug.
The situation has stabilized since, with the hash rate fluctuating around 100 TH/s for the past few days. Some experts attribute that to the start of the wet season in Sichuan, a southwest Chinese province where miners take advantage of low hydroelectricity prices between May and October.
The arrival of the new generation of ASICs is expected to drive the hash rate even higher, at least once upgraded units become widely available. So, will the newly revealed T19 model make any impact on the state of the network?
Experts agree that it won’t affect the hash rate to a major degree, as it’s a lower output model compared with the S19 series and MicroBT’s M30 series. Minehan said she doesn’t expect the T19 model “to have a huge impact that’s an immediate cause of concern,” as “most likely this is a run of <3500 units of a particular bin quality.” Similarly, Mark D’Aria, the CEO of crypto consulting firm Bitpro, told Cointelegraph:
“There isn’t a strong reason to expect the new model to significantly affect the hashrate. It might be a slightly more compelling option to a miner with extraordinarily inexpensive electricity, but otherwise they likely would have just purchased an S19 instead.” Bitmain continues to hold leadership despite internal struggle
At the end of the day, manufacturers are always in an arms race, and mining machines are simply commodity products, Zhang argued in a conversation with Cointelegraph:
“Besides price, performance, and failure rate, there are not many factors that can help a manufacturer differentiate from the others. The relentless competition led to where we are today.” According to Zhang, as the iteration rate naturally slows down in the future, there will be more facilities using “creative thermal design such as immersion cooling,” hoping to maximize the mining efficiency beyond just using most powerful machines.
As for now, Bitmain remains the leader of the mining race, despite having to deal with the largely defunct 17 series and an intensifying power struggle between its two co-founders, Jihan Wu and Micree Zhan, which recently resulted in reports of a street brawl.
“Due to its recent internal issues, Bitmain is facing challenges to keep its strong position in the future thus they started to look at other things to expand its industry influences,” Xu told Cointelegraph. He added that Bitmain “will still dominate the industry position in the near future due to its network effect,” although its current problems might allow competitors such as MicroBT to catch up.
Earlier this week, the power struggle inside Bitmain intensified even further as Micree Zhan, an ousted executive of the mining titan, reportedly led a group of private guards to overtake the company’s office in Beijing.
Meanwhile, Bitmain continues to expand its operations. Last week, the mining company revealed it was extending its “Ant Training Academy” certification program to North America, with the first courses set to launch in the fall. As such, Bitmain seems to be doubling down on the U.S.-based mining sector, which has been growing recently. The Beijing-based company already operates what it classifies as “the world’s largest” mining facility in Rockdale, Texas, which has a planned capacity of 50 megawatts that can later be expanded to 300 megawatts.
submitted by melissaBrian0 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

I support Bitcoin ABC and the IFP

I, maff1989, in support of the miners' intent to fund their software infrastructure to grow Bitcoin Cash to be the most competitive peer-to-peer electronic cash for the world, pledge to pay a minimum of $0.10 in fees for each economic (i.e. value-exchange) transaction I make using the Bitcoin Cash network during the period of May 15th 2020 to November 15th 2020.
Assuming a current BCH price of ~$338, we take the 5% block reward reduction from the IFP and a 6.25 BCH base block reward (May 15 IFP = post-halvening). To offset the 5% block reward reduction completely, it would only take ~1060 transactions per block, each paying a $0.10 transaction fee.
6.25 BCH * 5% = 0.3125 BCH (reduction per block reward)
0.3125 * $338/BCH = $105.63 (paid to dev address)
~$106 / $0.10/tx = 1,060 tx/block
Over time, as the price of BCH rises in contrast to BTC (and with the right marketing and timing, it will), and/or the amount of economic activity increases on the BCH network, the number of transactions required by each user to pay the $0.10 fees will reduce, since the decreased BCH/BTC ratio and/or increased activity will offset the 5% block reward reduction even further - or completely - as miners switch to mining BCH due to increased consistent profitability vs BTC. :)
And even if the BCH price goes down in the interim, then paying a minimum $0.10 per transaction will only further incentivize hashrate to mine BCH vs BTC.
After all, BCH needs hashrate for security.
The halvening is upon us. The confidence is gone. Ask yourselves this: would you be confident in the value of a chain where the miners and developers weren't working together in an attempt to bolster functionality and infrastructure; to proceed more hastily down an already-established roadmap; especially at the current time in history?
Wouldn't you feel more inclined to support a movement like that with your transaction fees?
I mean, let's think about it for a second: motherfuckers paid $0.50 per transaction to feed chickens across the Internet. Motherfuckers like me did it, too. It was fun!
Why can't the IFP be fun, too? It's an attempt to mature the ecosystem; to truly test Nakamoto Consensus between each equal component within: devs, miners, and especially users. I wanna take part in that test of time, and I'm putting my money where my mouth is. I hope more people feel the same.
submitted by maff1989 to btc [link] [comments]

Mining: Weird Time to Start, a Good Time to Think

Mining: Weird Time to Start, a Good Time to Think
Well, it’s supposed to be an optimistic article about most promising mining cryptos, but then something happened. No one was too naive to believe that the events unfolded around the COVID-19 pandemic will not affect global markets, but the turbulence that occurred was very significant and, what is most sad, it is still very difficult to say how soon the situation will stabilize.
https://preview.redd.it/9xxheofluzp41.png?width=1024&format=png&auto=webp&s=cd8ca033faddf57ea041e82ceadee1037b8587f1
Many people were already bothered that crypto mining is becoming less profitable in 2020 and will be meaningless very soon, but even though big companies having bigger resources took over most of the industry, cryptocurrency mining using video cards remains available to common users and still has potential.
Despite, the volatility of the cryptocurrency market hashrate of the Bitcoin blockchain network yet remains almost at the same level and that is a quite positive sign. At the moment, the most reliable option seems to be to leave mining to large ASIC-farms and return when the stock panic subsides and the prospects will be clearer.
Although Bitcoin is still the most popular cryptocurrency on the market, every year the complexity of operations necessary for its production increases, and rewards fall (after halving in May 2020, we will talk about 6.25 BTC per block). For mining many altcoins, the threshold for entry is much lower, therefore it makes sense to look for a more profitable option among them.
But first, let’s try to understand a little what conditions we need for profitable mining.
There are several crucial aspects that determine how profitable mining will be. These are such obvious things as the price of the currency or the amount of reward for the generated block.
And this is the reason it is now very difficult to calculate the possible income. One way or another, the market price of altcoins depends on the position of bitcoin, which is experiencing bad times. For several months, the world of crypto mining has been preparing for the May halving, because the reduced supply led to a significant increase in prices. This time should not have been an exception, but now when bitcoin does not rise above $5500 and risks falling below $3500, we can only make vague guesses about its potential price in May. Many analysts tend to believe that closer to the middle of April, the negative effect of the crisis should be reduced, and positive expectations from halving and a large amount of cash from investors should have a positive impact on the price of bitcoin. Altcoins, as a rule, repeat the dynamics of the first cryptocurrency and will also continue their growth to historical highs in the year’s future.
Next, you should also pay attention to the complexity of mining because it affects the time and energy spent on generating the block. Do not forget about the cost of electricity in your region, as one extra-large bill can negate all your efforts to earn money on currency mining.
Do not forget about expenses on a mining rig and it’s amortisation.
In addition to the above, you should find out how practical the chosen currency is: whether it can be exchanged for fiat or more popular coins, what fees are charged by exchanges that work with it, and what reputation it has in general.
In order to avoid unpleasant mistakes, it is easier and more reliable to check the possible profit in one of the many calculators.

Best altcoins to mine in 2020

Monero is the currency with the highest anonymity rates, which stays attractive to many users and remains one of the strongest altcoins. The specific proof-of-work hashing algorithm does not allow ASIC-miners, so it is relatively easy to mine using personal computer’s processors and graphics cards. AMD graphic cards are preferable for this task, but NVidia suits as well. The current block reward is 2.47 XMR.
Litecoin is one of the oldest Bitcoin forks, but unlike it uses a different “Script” PoW algorithm which allows less powerful GPUs to mine coins. Litecoin is on the most popular, and successful Bitcoin forks and considered one of the most stable cryptocurrencies. Block mining reward is 12.5 LTC.
Ravencoin is another Bitcoin hardfork, and like Monero’s its X16R algorithm is practically unavailable for ASIC machines. Raven keeps gaining popularity for many reasons – it has faster block time, higher mining reward (5,000 RVN at the moment) and secure messaging system.
Dogecoin is not a joke anymore. Hard to believe, but this currency once made for fun, became one of the most valuable ones. Like Litecoin it uses Scrypt algorithm and great for mining with GPUs.
One more Bitcoin fork Bitcoin Gold was made specifically to kick out ASICs and clear the road for GPUs. It may not be the fastest-growing currency, but it is definitely one of the most stable.
That’s all for today. Stay safe, cause health is our most important asset.
Follow us on Medium, Twitter, Facebook, and Reddit to get StealthEX.io updates and the latest news about the crypto world. For all requests message us via [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])
submitted by Stealthex_io to StealthEX [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Might Crash Due To Miner Capitulation

Bitcoin Might Crash Due To Miner Capitulation
The Blockchain Opportunity fund manager and CEO of Blockware Solutions Matt D’Souza has expressed his opinion of the coming Bitcoin price crash should the next rally fail to gain traction. The reason – massive cryptocurrency sell off by miners who constitute 30% of the network hashrate. By his calculations, with the price being at $8500 after the third halving, some 30% of the current hashrate is being supplied by ASIC miners operating at a loss. With Bitcoin mining profitability dropping, miners may have to start selling their BTC reserves to “stay afloat”. From D’Souza’s observations, lots of miners are already going offline.
It’s worth noting that the halving event has led to Bitcoin miners getting 44% less rewards for each block and the total network hashrate drop by 16%.
Source: https://www.reddit.com/usebuytexchange/comments/gk8oq6/bitcoin_might_crash_due_to_miner_capitulation/
https://preview.redd.it/bkyhntewlxy41.png?width=1280&format=png&auto=webp&s=52de052fbfabf5e0cd4b4941b455906300014107
submitted by buytexnetwork to u/buytexnetwork [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Might Crash Due To Miner Capitulation

Bitcoin Might Crash Due To Miner Capitulation
The Blockchain Opportunity fund manager and CEO of Blockware Solutions Matt D’Souza has expressed his opinion of the coming Bitcoin price crash should the next rally fail to gain traction. The reason – massive cryptocurrency sell off by miners who constitute 30% of the network hashrate. By his calculations, with the price being at $8500 after the third halving, some 30% of the current hashrate is being supplied by ASIC miners operating at a loss. With Bitcoin mining profitability dropping, miners may have to start selling their BTC reserves to “stay afloat”. From D’Souza’s observations, lots of miners are already going offline.
It’s worth noting that the halving event has led to Bitcoin miners getting 44% less rewards for each block and the total network hashrate drop by 16%.
https://preview.redd.it/o6l1hc7pfxy41.png?width=1280&format=png&auto=webp&s=5454ca417c1852bd724f86bfecb78e4f38b1c27a
submitted by buytexchange to u/buytexchange [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Reaches New All-Time High Hash Rate Just A Week Before Halving

Bitcoin Reaches New All-Time High Hash Rate Just A Week Before Halving

Some Crypto Analysts Consider The Increased Hash Rate To Affect Bitcoin’s Price Positively, As “Price Follows Hashrate”
The largest cryptocurrency to date, Bitcoin, is preparing for its third halving, scheduled at block 690,000, or around May 14. Meanwhile, Bitcoin miners are putting even greater push for validating transactions, which is often referred to as a bullish sign.
The amount of computer power needed to validate a transaction on Bitcoin’s blockchain peaked with a new all-time high on May 3. Crypto speculators consider the halving event as a catalyst for Bitcoin’s price to explode in the months after the reward cut.
Crypto analysis company Glassnode posted a chart on Twitter, marking the bullish exponential curve of hashrate activity. Traders and enthusiasts, who believe in the “price follows hashrate” maxima quickly showed their enthusiasm about the peak. Max Keiser, for example, shared a chart from Bitcoin.com, showing his bullish stance on the future price of Bitcoin.
Source: Glassnode
The correlation between Bitcoin’s price and the hashrate is still not confirmed, but there are some historical hints that such correlation may exist. However, if Bitcoin’s price increases, miners get a bigger reward for mining a block. The price increase leads to more miners joining the race, which increases hashrate as well.
For instance, in September 2018, just moments before the crypto winter, Bitcoin’s network had 56 ExHash-per-second (EH/s) with price per one BTC roughly at $6,500. During the following three months, Bitcoin’s network hashrate fell to as low as 31 EH/s, with a price per BTC around the $4,000 mark.
However, the thesis that more miners are entering the computing pool when Bitcoin is approaching its halving may not be entirely accurate. The halving procedure cuts down the reward per mined block in half. Small and mid-sized miners and mining farms may be forced to shut down operations, as they might not clear their costs for operating the rigs. Some experts believe the hashrate push could be a last “attack” towards making a profit before the reward cut.
Meanwhile, other crypto experts consider the spike to be because of the possible price increase anticipation. The CFO of Boston Trading Co. Jeremy Britton explained that with the increasing scarcity for mining precious metals (like Gold, for example), its price increases. The same principle may be applied for Bitcoin, also.
“When Bitcoin’s price crashed in 2019, its price did not drop below $3,000, because miners didn’t want to sell on loss. The expenses for mining a single block on Bitcoin’s network are around $3,000, without considering the costs for equipment and the Internet”, Britton stated.
The next halving, scheduled for May 14, would further increase the costs per mining a BTC block. “The next possible floor for Bitcoin’s price is around $6,000 because miners won’t agree to sell on loss”, Britton concluded.
Pricewise, Bitcoin failed to overcome and settle above $9,000, as the weekend rally broke above the psychological barrier, but was quickly corrected to trade at $8,719.97 currently. The hashrate peak, however, pushed trading volumes up from May 3 with over $8 billion.
submitted by Crypto_Browser to CryptoBrowser_EN [link] [comments]

Why is the RandomX algorithm being hyped to the moon?

TL;DR: don't assume the average return from mining RandomX will be higher than the current CryptonightR algorithm. Hold back your excitement for now.
I think we all need to bring something to our attention. Over the last month, there have been so many topics and comments here on MoneroMining about the new 'RandomX' algorithm. This algorithm is supposed to be launched a couple of months from now.
There are many questions like "is this a good hashrate for my CPU"? "What's your power usage on RandomX"? "How can I tune my CPU for RandomX"? "How would the algorithm perform on this hardware"? I think these are great constructive comments that are at the heart of what miners stand for. We miners love optimizing our rigs and educating ourselves on technological trends.
But I've noticed many questions such as "what parts should I buy for a RandomX mining rig"? "Is an AMD Ryzen 9 3900x a good investment"? "What parts will give me the most profit when RandomX launches"? Many of these questions are asked with very little research.
I think there's a gold fever brewing behind some of these comments. The kind of motives that have bankrupted many miners in the past bubbles.
As we have seen in 2014 and 2018, anybody who enters the crypto industry with an 'I want easy profit' attitude almost always goes bankrupt. They buy coins or hardware at the peak of the bubble. Sometimes they get lucky and sell their coins or rigs right before the crash (only to get burned in a future bubble later). But most of the time, these new users lose most of their investment.
As a veteran miner, a lot of alarm bells ring in my head when I read these kinds of RandomX hype posts.
I have no reason to think CPU mining will be more profitable on RandomX than on the current CryptonightR.
In the GPU mining community, I have the feeling that there's a lot of resentment over the 2018 crypto recession and the whole 'ASIC miner invasion'. I think people here are feeling burned over their losses last year and the evil ASIC takeover, and want an opportunity for the little guy to start mining again. So we're falsely seeing the RandomX ray of hope as a floodlight, and getting overexcited.
And in general, the ordinary person cannot make a significant, steady profit in the crypto mining industry. The guy who wrote that thread is very rich and even 100 GTX 1080 Ti's cost nothing to him. The reason he became wealthy is because he avoided get-rich-quick gimmicks back in the day (like the dotcom sites) and focused on learning technology for the future. Mining will not make you rich, and especially not RandomX coin tossing.
If you love RandomX, build your rig now, keep benchmarking and undervolting and have fun at it. But if you just want profit, wait until RandomX is up and running. And consider all the risks involved with a new algorithm and commercial mining in general.
So I hope we can all reconsider whether we're excited about RandomX for the right reasons. Let's try to avoid jumping to conclusions about profitability and hold off on the Newegg 'checkout' button. Even though 12 cores at 70 watts sounds awesome. Happy mining!
submitted by Hammereditor to MoneroMining [link] [comments]

Transcript of discussion between an ASIC designer and several proof-of-work designers from #monero-pow channel on Freenode this morning

[08:07:01] lukminer contains precompiled cn/r math sequences for some blocks: https://lukminer.org/2019/03/09/oh-kay-v4r-here-we-come/
[08:07:11] try that with RandomX :P
[08:09:00] tevador: are you ready for some RandomX feedback? it looks like the CNv4 is slowly stabilizing, hashrate comes down...
[08:09:07] how does it even make sense to precompile it?
[08:09:14] mine 1% faster for 2 minutes?
[08:09:35] naturally we think the entire asic-resistance strategy is doomed to fail :) but that's a high-level thing, who knows. people may think it's great.
[08:09:49] about RandomX: looks like the cache size was chosen to make it GPU-hard
[08:09:56] looking forward to more docs
[08:11:38] after initial skimming, I would think it's possible to make a 10x asic for RandomX. But at least for us, we will only make an ASIC if there is not a total ASIC hostility there in the first place. That's better for the secret miners then.
[08:13:12] What I propose is this: we are working on an Ethash ASIC right now, and once we have that working, we would invite tevador or whoever wants to come to HK/Shenzhen and we walk you guys through how we would make a RandomX ASIC. You can then process this input in any way you like. Something like that.
[08:13:49] unless asics (or other accelerators) re-emerge on XMR faster than expected, it looks like there is a little bit of time before RandomX rollout
[08:14:22] 10x in what measure? $/hash or watt/hash?
[08:14:46] watt/hash
[08:15:19] so you can make 10 times more efficient double precisio FPU?
[08:16:02] like I said let's try to be productive. You are having me here, let's work together!
[08:16:15] continue with RandomX, publish more docs. that's always helpful.
[08:16:37] I'm trying to understand how it's possible at all. Why AMD/Intel are so inefficient at running FP calculations?
[08:18:05] midipoet ([email protected]/web/irccloud.com/x-vszshqqxwybvtsjm) has joined #monero-pow
[08:18:17] hardware development works the other way round. We start with 1) math then 2) optimization priority 3) hw/sw boundary 4) IP selection 5) physical implementation
[08:22:32] This still doesn't explain at which point you get 10x
[08:23:07] Weren't you the ones claiming "We can accelerate ProgPoW by a factor of 3x to 8x." ? I find it hard to believe too.
[08:30:20] sure
[08:30:26] so my idea: first we finish our current chip
[08:30:35] from simulation to silicon :)
[08:30:40] we love this stuff... we do it anyway
[08:30:59] now we have a communication channel, and we don't call each other names immediately anymore: big progress!
[08:31:06] you know, we russians have a saying "it was smooth on paper, but they forgot about ravines"
[08:31:12] So I need a bit more details
[08:31:16] ha ha. good!
[08:31:31] that's why I want to avoid to just make claims
[08:31:34] let's work
[08:31:40] RandomX comes in Sep/Oct, right?
[08:31:45] Maybe
[08:32:20] We need to audit it first
[08:32:31] ok
[08:32:59] we don't make chips to prove sw devs that their assumptions about hardware are wrong. especially not if these guys then promptly hardfork and move to the next wrong assumption :)
[08:33:10] from the outside, this only means that hw & sw are devaluing each other
[08:33:24] neither of us should do this
[08:33:47] we are making chips that can hopefully accelerate more crypto ops in the future
[08:33:52] signing, verifying, proving, etc.
[08:34:02] PoW is just a feature like others
[08:34:18] sech1: is it easy for you to come to Hong Kong? (visa-wise)
[08:34:20] or difficult?
[08:34:33] or are you there sometimes?
[08:34:41] It's kind of far away
[08:35:13] we are looking forward to more RandomX docs. that's the first step.
[08:35:31] I want to avoid that we have some meme "Linzhi says they can accelerate XYZ by factor x" .... "ha ha ha"
[08:35:37] right? we don't want that :)
[08:35:39] doc is almost finished
[08:35:40] What docs do you need? It's described pretty good
[08:35:41] so I better say nothing now
[08:35:50] we focus on our Ethash chip
[08:36:05] then based on that, we are happy to walk interested people through the design and what else it can do
[08:36:22] that's a better approach from my view than making claims that are laughed away (rightfully so, because no silicon...)
[08:36:37] ethash ASIC is basically a glorified memory controller
[08:36:39] sech1: tevador said something more is coming (he just did it again)
[08:37:03] yes, some parts of RandomX are not described well
[08:37:10] like dataset access logic
[08:37:37] RandomX looks like progpow for CPU
[08:37:54] yes
[08:38:03] it is designed to reflect CPU
[08:38:34] so any ASIC for it = CPU in essence
[08:39:04] of course there are still some things in regular CPU that can be thrown away for RandomX
[08:40:20] uncore parts are not used, but those will use very little power
[08:40:37] except for memory controller
[08:41:09] I'm just surprised sometimes, ok? let me ask: have you designed or taped out an asic before? isn't it risky to make assumptions about things that are largely unknown?
[08:41:23] I would worry
[08:41:31] that I get something wrong...
[08:41:44] but I also worry like crazy that CNv4 will blow up, where you guys seem to be relaxed
[08:42:06] I didn't want to bring up anything RandomX because CNv4 is such a nailbiter... :)
[08:42:15] how do you guys know you don't have asics in a week or two?
[08:42:38] we don't have experience with ASIC design, but RandomX is simply designed to exactly fit CPU capabilities, which is the best you can do anyways
[08:43:09] similar as ProgPoW did with GPUs
[08:43:14] some people say they want to do asic-resistance only until the vast majority of coins has been issued
[08:43:21] that's at least reasonable
[08:43:43] yeah but progpow totally will not work as advertised :)
[08:44:08] yeah, I've seen that comment about progpow a few times already
[08:44:11] which is no surprise if you know it's just a random sales story to sell a few more GPUs
[08:44:13] RandomX is not permanent, we are expecting to switch to ASIC friendly in a few years if possible
[08:44:18] yes
[08:44:21] that makes sense
[08:44:40] linzhi-sonia: how so? will it break or will it be asic-able with decent performance gains?
[08:44:41] are you happy with CNv4 so far?
[08:45:10] ah, long story. progpow is a masterpiece of deception, let's not get into it here.
[08:45:21] if you know chip marketing it makes more sense
[08:45:24] linzhi-sonia: So far? lol! a bit early to tell, don't you think?
[08:45:35] the diff is coming down
[08:45:41] first few hours looked scary
[08:45:43] I remain skeptical: I only see ASICs being reasonable if they are already as ubiquitous as smartphones
[08:45:46] yes, so far so good
[08:46:01] we kbew the diff would not come down ubtil affter block 75
[08:46:10] yes
[08:46:22] but first few hours it looks like only 5% hashrate left
[08:46:27] looked
[08:46:29] now it's better
[08:46:51] the next worry is: when will "unexplainable" hashrate come back?
[08:47:00] you hope 2-3 months? more?
[08:47:05] so give it another couple of days. will probably overshoot to the downside, and then rise a bit as miners get updated and return
[08:47:22] 3 months minimum turnaround, yes
[08:47:28] nah
[08:47:36] don't underestimate asicmakers :)
[08:47:54] you guys don't get #1 priority on chip fabs
[08:47:56] 3 months = 90 days. do you know what is happening in those 90 days exactly? I'm pretty sure you don't. same thing as before.
[08:48:13] we don't do any secret chips btw
[08:48:21] 3 months assumes they had a complete design ready to go, and added the last minute change in 1 day
[08:48:24] do you know who is behind the hashrate that is now bricked?
[08:48:27] innosilicon?
[08:48:34] hyc: no no, and no. :)
[08:48:44] hyc: have you designed or taped out a chip before?
[08:48:51] yes, many years ago
[08:49:10] then you should know that 90 days is not a fixed number
[08:49:35] sure, but like I said, other makers have greater demand
[08:49:35] especially not if you can prepare, if you just have to modify something, or you have more programmability in the chip than some people assume
[08:50:07] we are chipmakers, we would never dare to do what you guys are doing with CNv4 :) but maybe that just means you are cooler!
[08:50:07] and yes, programmability makes some aspect of turnaround easier
[08:50:10] all fine
[08:50:10] I hope it works!
[08:50:28] do you know who is behind the hashrate that is now bricked?
[08:50:29] inno?
[08:50:41] we suspect so, but have no evidence
[08:50:44] maybe we can try to find them, but we cannot spend too much time on this
[08:50:53] it's probably not so much of a secret
[08:51:01] why should it be, right?
[08:51:10] devs want this cat-and-mouse game? devs get it...
[08:51:35] there was one leak saying it's innosilicon
[08:51:36] so you think 3 months, ok
[08:51:43] inno is cool
[08:51:46] good team
[08:51:49] IP design house
[08:51:54] in Wuhan
[08:52:06] they send their people to conferences with fake biz cards :)
[08:52:19] pretending to be other companies?
[08:52:26] sure
[08:52:28] ha ha
[08:52:39] so when we see them, we look at whatever card they carry and laugh :)
[08:52:52] they are perfectly suited for secret mining games
[08:52:59] they made at most $6 million in 2 months of mining, so I wonder if it was worth it
[08:53:10] yeah. no way to know
[08:53:15] but it's good that you calculate!
[08:53:24] this is all about cost/benefit
[08:53:25] then you also understand - imagine the value of XMR goes up 5x, 10x
[08:53:34] that whole "asic resistance" thing will come down like a house of cards
[08:53:41] I would imagine they sell immediately
[08:53:53] the investor may fully understand the risk
[08:53:57] the buyer
[08:54:13] it's not healthy, but that's another discussion
[08:54:23] so mid-June
[08:54:27] let's see
[08:54:49] I would be susprised if CNv4 ASICs show up at all
[08:54:56] surprised*
[08:54:56] why?
[08:55:05] is only an economic question
[08:55:12] yeah should be interesting. FPGAs will be near their limits as well
[08:55:16] unless XMR goes up a lot
[08:55:19] no, not *only*. it's also a technology question
[08:55:44] you believe CNv4 is "asic resistant"? which feature?
[08:55:53] it's not
[08:55:59] cnv4 = Rabdomx ?
[08:56:03] no
[08:56:07] cnv4=cryptinight/r
[08:56:11] ah
[08:56:18] CNv4 is the one we have now, I think
[08:56:21] since yesterday
[08:56:30] it's plenty enough resistant for current XMR price
[08:56:45] that may be, yes!
[08:56:55] I look at daily payouts. XMR = ca. 100k USD / day
[08:57:03] it can hold until October, but it's not asic resistant
[08:57:23] well, last 24h only 22,442 USD :)
[08:57:32] I think 80 h/s per watt ASICs are possible for CNv4
[08:57:38] linzhi-sonia where do you produce your chips? TSMC?
[08:57:44] I'm cruious how you would expect to build a randomX ASIC that outperforms ARM cores for efficiency, or Intel cores for raw speed
[08:57:48] curious
[08:58:01] yes, tsmc
[08:58:21] Our team did the world's first bitcoin asic, Avalon
[08:58:25] and upcoming 2nd gen Ryzens (64-core EPYC) will be a blast at RandomX
[08:58:28] designed and manufactured
[08:58:53] still being marketed?
[08:59:03] linzhi-sonia: do you understand what xmr wants to achieve, community-wise?
[08:59:14] Avalon? as part of Canaan Creative, yes I think so.
[08:59:25] there's not much interesting oing on in SHA256
[08:59:29] Inge-: I would think so, but please speak
[08:59:32] hyc: yes
[09:00:28] linzhi-sonia: i am curious to hear your thoughts. I am fairly new to this space myself...
[09:00:51] oh
[09:00:56] we are grandpas, and grandmas
[09:01:36] yet I have no problem understanding why ASICS are currently reviled.
[09:01:48] xmr's main differentiators to, let's say btc, are anonymity and fungibility
[09:01:58] I find the client terribly slow btw
[09:02:21] and I think the asic-forking since last may is wrong, doesn't create value and doesn't help with the project objectives
[09:02:25] which "the client" ?
[09:02:52] Monero GUI client maybe
[09:03:12] MacOS, yes
[09:03:28] What exactly is slow?
[09:03:30] linzhi-sonia: I run my own node, and use the CLI and Monerujo. Have not had issues.
[09:03:49] staying in sync
[09:03:49] linzhi-sonia: decentralization is also a key principle
[09:03:56] one that Bitcoin has failed to maintain
[09:04:39] hmm
[09:05:00] looks fairly decentralized to me. decentralization is the result of 3 goals imo: resilient, trustless, permissionless
[09:05:28] don't ask a hardware maker about physical decentralization. that's too ideological. we focus on logical decentralization.
[09:06:11] physical decentralization is important. with bulk of bitnoin mining centered on Chinese hydroelectric dams
[09:06:19] have you thought about including block data in the PoW?
[09:06:41] yes, of course.
[09:07:39] is that already in an algo?
[09:08:10] hyc: about "centered on chinese hydro" - what is your source? the best paper I know is this: https://coinshares.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Mining-Whitepaper-Final.pdf
[09:09:01] linzhi-sonia: do you mine on your ASICs before you sell them?
[09:09:13] besides testing of course
[09:09:45] that paper puts Chinese btc miners at 60% max
[09:10:05] tevador: I think everybody learned that that is not healthy long-term!
[09:10:16] because it gives the chipmaker a cost advantage over its own customers
[09:10:33] and cost advantage leads to centralization (physical and logical)
[09:10:51] you guys should know who finances progpow and why :)
[09:11:05] but let's not get into this, ha ha. want to keep the channel civilized. right OhGodAGirl ? :)
[09:11:34] tevador: so the answer is no! 100% and definitely no
[09:11:54] that "self-mining" disease was one of the problems we have now with asics, and their bad reputation (rightfully so)
[09:13:08] I plan to write a nice short 2-page paper or so on our chip design process. maybe it's interesting to some people here.
[09:13:15] basically the 5 steps I mentioned before, from math to physical
[09:13:32] linzhi-sonia: the paper you linked puts 48% of bitcoin mining in Sichuan. the total in China is much more than 60%
[09:13:38] need to run it by a few people to fix bugs, will post it here when published
[09:14:06] hyc: ok! I am just sharing the "best" document I know today. it definitely may be wrong and there may be a better one now.
[09:14:18] hyc: if you see some reports, please share
[09:14:51] hey I am really curious about this: where is a PoW algo that puts block data into the PoW?
[09:15:02] the previous paper I read is from here http://hackingdistributed.com/2018/01/15/decentralization-bitcoin-ethereum/
[09:15:38] hyc: you said that already exists? (block data in PoW)
[09:15:45] it would make verification harder
[09:15:49] linzhi-sonia: https://the-eye.eu/public/Books/campdivision.com/PDF/Computers%20General/Privacy/bitcoin/meh/hashimoto.pdf
[09:15:51] but for chips it would be interesting
[09:15:52] we discussed the possibility about a year ago https://www.reddit.com/Monero/comments/8bshrx/what_we_need_to_know_about_proof_of_work_pow/
[09:16:05] oh good links! thanks! need to read...
[09:16:06] I think that paper by dryja was original
[09:17:53] since we have a nice flow - second question I'm very curious about: has anyone thought about in-protocol rewards for other functions?
[09:18:55] we've discussed micropayments for wallets to use remote nodes
[09:18:55] you know there is a lot of work in other coins about STARK provers, zero-knowledge, etc. many of those things very compute intense, or need to be outsourced to a service (zether). For chipmakers, in-protocol rewards create an economic incentive to accelerate those things.
[09:19:50] whenever there is an in-protocol reward, you may get the power of ASICs doing something you actually want to happen
[09:19:52] it would be nice if there was some economic reward for running a fullnode, but no one has come up with much more than that afaik
[09:19:54] instead of fighting them off
[09:20:29] you need to use asics, not fight them. that's an obvious thing to say for an asicmaker...
[09:20:41] in-protocol rewards can be very powerful
[09:20:50] like I said before - unless the ASICs are so useful they're embedded in every smartphone, I dont see them being a positive for decentralization
[09:21:17] if they're a separate product, the average consumer is not going to buy them
[09:21:20] now I was talking about speedup of verifying, signing, proving, etc.
[09:21:23] they won't even know what they are
[09:22:07] if anybody wants to talk about or design in-protocol rewards, please come talk to us
[09:22:08] the average consumer also doesn't use general purpose hardware to secure blockchains either
[09:22:14] not just for PoW, in fact *NOT* for PoW
[09:22:32] it requires sw/hw co-design
[09:23:10] we are in long-term discussions/collaboration over this with Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash. just talk right now.
[09:23:16] this was recently published though suggesting more uptake though I guess https://btcmanager.com/college-students-are-the-second-biggest-miners-of-cryptocurrency/
[09:23:29] I find it pretty hard to believe their numbers
[09:24:03] well
[09:24:09] sorry, original article: https://www.pcmag.com/news/366952/college-kids-are-using-campus-electricity-to-mine-crypto
[09:24:11] just talk, no? rumors
[09:24:18] college students are already more educated than the average consumer
[09:24:29] we are not seeing many such customers anymore
[09:24:30] it's data from cisco monitoring network traffic
[09:24:33] and they're always looking for free money
[09:24:48] of course anyone with "free" electricity is inclined to do it
[09:24:57] but look at the rates, cannot make much money
[09:26:06] Ethereum is a bloated collection of bugs wrapped in a UI. I suppose they need all the help they can get
[09:26:29] Bitcoin Cash ... just another get rich quick scheme
[09:26:38] hmm :)
[09:26:51] I'll give it back to you, ok? ha ha. arrogance comes before the fall...
[09:27:17] maye we should have a little fun with CNv4 mining :)
[09:27:25] ;)
[09:27:38] come on. anyone who has watched their track record... $75M lost in ETH at DAO hack
[09:27:50] every smart contract that comes along is just waiting for another hack
[09:27:58] I just wanted to throw out the "in-protocol reward" thing, maybe someone sees the idea and wants to cowork. maybe not. maybe it's a stupid idea.
[09:29:18] linzhi-sonia: any thoughts on CN-GPU?
[09:29:55] CN-GPU has one positive aspect - it wastes chip area to implement all 18 hash algorithms
[09:30:19] you will always hear roughly the same feedback from me:
[09:30:52] "This algorithm very different, it heavy use floating point operations to hurt FPGAs and general purpose CPUs"
[09:30:56] the problem is, if it's profitable for people to buy ASIC miners and mine, it's always more profitable for the manufacturer to not sell and mine themselves
[09:31:02] "hurt"
[09:31:07] what is the point of this?
[09:31:15] it totally doesn't work
[09:31:24] you are hurting noone, just demonstrating lack of ability to think
[09:31:41] what is better: algo designed for chip, or chip designed for algo?
[09:31:43] fireice does it on daily basis, CN-GPU is a joke
[09:31:53] tevador: that's not really true, especially in a market with such large price fluctuations as cryptocurrency
[09:32:12] it's far less risky to sell miners than mine with them and pray that price doesn't crash for next six months
[09:32:14] I think it's great that crypto has a nice group of asicmakers now, hw & sw will cowork well
[09:32:36] jwinterm yes, that's why they premine them and sell after
[09:32:41] PoW is about being thermodynamically and cryptographically provable
[09:32:45] premining with them is taking on that risk
[09:32:49] not "fork when we think there are asics"
[09:32:51] business is about risk minimization
[09:32:54] that's just fear-driven
[09:33:05] Inge-: that's roughly the feedback
[09:33:24] I'm not saying it hasn't happened, but I think it's not so simple as saying "it always happens"
[09:34:00] jwinterm: it has certainly happened on BTC. and also on XMR.
[09:34:19] ironically, please think about it: these kinds of algos indeed prove the limits of the chips they were designed for. but they don't prove that you cannot implement the same algo differently! cannot!
[09:34:26] Risk minimization is not starting a business at all.
[09:34:34] proof-of-gpu-limit. proof-of-cpu-limit.
[09:34:37] imagine you have a money printing machine, would you sell it?
[09:34:39] proves nothing for an ASIC :)
[09:35:05] linzhi-sonia: thanks. I dont think anyone believes you can't make a more efficient cn-gpu asic than a gpu - but that it would not be orders of magnitude faster...
[09:35:24] ok
[09:35:44] like I say. these algos are, that's really ironic, designed to prove the limitatios of a particular chip in mind of the designer
[09:35:50] exactly the wrong way round :)
[09:36:16] like the cache size in RandomX :)
[09:36:18] beautiful
[09:36:29] someone looked at GPU designs
[09:37:31] linzhi-sonia can you elaborate? Cache size in RandomX was selected to fit CPU cache
[09:37:52] yes
[09:38:03] too large for GPU
[09:38:11] as I said, we are designing the algorithm to exactly fit CPU capabilities, I do not claim an ASIC cannot be more efficient
[09:38:16] ok!
[09:38:29] when will you do the audit?
[09:38:35] will the results be published in a document or so?
[09:38:37] I claim that single-chip ASIC is not viable, though
[09:39:06] you guys are brave, noone disputes that. 3 anti-asic hardforks now!
[09:39:18] 4th one coming
[09:39:31] 3 forks were done not only for this
[09:39:38] they had scheduled updates in the first place
[09:48:10] Monero is the #1 anti-asic fighter
[09:48:25] Monero is #1 for a lot of reasons ;)
[09:48:40] It's the coin with the most hycs.
[09:48:55] mooooo
[09:59:06] sneaky integer overflow, bug squished
[10:38:00] p0nziph0ne ([email protected]/vpn/privateinternetaccess/p0nziph0ne) has joined #monero-pow
[11:10:53] The convo here is wild
[11:12:29] it's like geo-politics at the intersection of software and hardware manufacturing for thermoeconomic value.
[11:13:05] ..and on a Sunday.
[11:15:43] midipoet: hw and sw should work together and stop silly games to devalue each other. to outsiders this is totally not attractive.
[11:16:07] I appreciate the positive energy here to try to listen, learn, understand.
[11:16:10] that's a start
[11:16:48] <-- p0nziph0ne ([email protected]/vpn/privateinternetaccess/p0nziph0ne) has quit (Quit: Leaving)
[11:16:54] we won't do silly mining against xmr "community" wishes, but not because we couldn'd do it, but because it's the wrong direction in the long run, for both sides
[11:18:57] linzhi-sonia: I agree to some extent. Though, in reality, there will always be divergence between social worlds. Not every body has the same vision of the future. Reaching societal consensus on reality tomorrow is not always easy
[11:20:25] absolutely. especially at a time when there is so much profit to be made from divisiveness.
[11:20:37] someone will want to make that profit, for sure
[11:24:32] Yes. Money distorts.
[11:24:47] Or wealth...one of the two
[11:26:35] Too much physical money will distort rays of light passing close to it indeed.
submitted by jwinterm to Monero [link] [comments]

Miner donations will not be implemented. I will vote No in the hashrate vote.

Jiang Zhuoer, the founder of Leibite mining pool, said in a Weibo post.
It was him who first proposed the plan, and it was also him who stood up and said that he would vote against it. The taste is only known to the BCH community who has been sawing for more than a month.
Planned preform
All this has to start from January 22. On this day, Jiang Zhuoer also published the article "Infrastructure Funding Plan (IFP) for Bitcoin Cash" on Weibo and medium at the same time. In his opinion, the current BCH has a problem of developer operating funds, only A few companies donate to developers, and the other members are hitchhikers, which can be called a tragedy of the commons.
In fact, it is not just BCH. Many early projects without 1CO lack a continuous source of funds. BTC and LTC also rely on the sustainable funding of companies and individuals to donate to developers. Regarding this, Jiang Zhuoer added at the subsequent AMA held by Reddit that a few companies continued to donate, and these companies' right to speak would increase, which might affect the development in the future, which is also a major hidden danger.
So based on the consideration of stable development funds, he said that several major mining pools on BCH (BTC.TOP, Antpool, BTC.com, ViaBTC, Bitcoin.com) will implement a new donation plan that will reward BCH for block explosions. 12.5% ​​was donated to a specially established fund to support BCH infrastructure, which aims to provide sufficient funds for BCH developers. Blocks that are unwilling to participate in this donation plan will be isolated.
According to its disclosure, the donation will last 6 months and the estimated amount is about 6 million US dollars. A Hong Kong company has been set up to accept and distribute funds. At the end of the article, Jiang Zhuoer, Wu Jihan, Yang Haibo and Roger Ver were stated to be supporters of this plan.
The response was extremely intense
After the news came out, BCH communities at home and abroad had a heated discussion. There are mixed voices in China. Some people think that this is a great benefit to the BCH currency price. Some people think that this is a miner sacrificing part of their own interests to support infrastructure construction. It is a manifestation of the spirit of the community, but some people allege that this is a pumping behavior ... these are evident in the comments below Jiang Zhuo's blog post.
The foreign community, which has gathered most of the BCH developers and core personnel, is even more dramatic.
On January 23, the day after the BCH miner donation plan was issued, Amaury Séchet (@deadalnix), the chief developer of the ABC team of BCH, posted a post on read.cash [1], which is the platform for the donation plan. He said this plan It has been brewing for a long time. The operation of the team needs financial support, clarifying that this is not the so-called "compulsory miner tax". What's more notable is that he thinks that there is no problem as long as the endowment fund can be transparent, and even Mao has recommended himself that he and Jonald Fyookball, the chief developer of Electron Cash, a light wallet developed by BCH, are qualified to control the fund.
Later, the Jonald Fyookball he mentioned also posted on read.cash [2], which also said that it would be beneficial to the team and miners. I have tried many measures on development funds before, but none of them worked. One will be a short six-month trial and will be upgraded in the next BCH agreement.
However, the core people in the community took the lead to speak out in support of this, but it could not stop the tide of opposition afterwards.
In order to fight for the miners' donation, the moderators of read.cash also created a special "Debate section" [4] for the community to express their opinions.
On January 26, Peter Rizun, chief scientist of the Bitcoin Unlimited (BU) team, posted a post on it [5], explaining in detail the operation of funds in this scheme. (It is necessary to add here that the BCH network is composed of two major clients, ABC and BU, which together account for more than 95% of the 1,510 public nodes in the BCH network.)
According to his article, the 12.5% ​​block reward BCH tokens will be sent directly to the new company in Hong Kong, and the developer's operating funds will come from the funds obtained by the new company from selling these BCH tokens on the exchange.
After the mining revenue decreases, the hash rate of the network will drop by about the same percentage. Since BCH accounts for about 3% of the SHA256 hash rate, and other conditions remain unchanged, the total income of SHA256 miners will fall by ~ 0.4%. The following figure graphically shows the flow of these donated tokens: In fact, the mining The merchant lost only a small part of its profits. The group of investors who ultimately bought the BCH tokens out of the Hong Kong company. In the text, Peter Rizun pointed out that this is simply the developer service tax of BCH, and corruption will arise.
In addition, the Bitcoin protocol has been eleven years so far. At present, what BCH needs to do is how to make the protocol more stable. The role of developer should gradually fade away, and the continuous growth of users is the core. Peter Rizun even stated at the end of the article that the monopolistic miners are still trying to adopt such a plan, and the greed is obvious and disgusting, and the BU team will probably not accept this donation plan.
On the same day, BCH developer Imaginary Username posted that he believes that the development team's funds can come directly from capital investment, sponsorship, shareholder contributions and voluntary payments by miners, rather than forcing miners to pay. c After this, a BCH crowdfunding plan named Flipstarter.cash was announced online [7], and proposed other fundraising schemes other than donations from miners, and emphasized that this would be a new proposal based on voluntary.
In general, opponents of these donation programs acknowledge that developers need revenue and infrastructure needs to be maintained, but also said that if the final plan is passed, those who do not support this plan will be lonely and violate the blockchain. spirit. Whether the taxation in disguise causes corruption, whether it will be carried out for a long time, or whether it violates the spirit of blockchain decentralization is the focus of debate.
Things are still fermenting. Subsequently, Bitcoin.com also began to counter water, thinking that there is no consensus on this plan at present, and the development team needs to be clear about their use of funds. Bitcoin.com will also adopt a more prudent attitude and will not risk the risk of chain forks To support this decision.
Regenerate
In the face of various oppositions, Jiang Zhuoer released a new donation plan on February 1 [9], stating that the issue of donation ratio is in fact questionable, and reiterated that this plan will be democratic and encourage miners to perform computing power. Vote for your opinion. This plan will only be implemented if more than two-thirds of the computing power vote in favor of the donation. On February 16, Jiang Zhuoer updated the donation plan again, which reduced the original 12.5% ​​to 5%.
However, the release of the new version did not solve the doubts in the community.
In response, digital currency commentator WhalePanda tweeted that the miner's tax rate is very funny, and any block that is not donated will be blocked. This is actually a totalitarian totalitarian regime, accompanied by a 51% attack threat.
On the same day on the 16th, Roger ver, the founder of the Bitcoin.com wallet, posted a YouTube video [10]. He believed that the donation ratio was 12.5% ​​or 5% a bit random, and said "probably because of communication problems". His donation plan supporters have his name, but in fact he and Bitcoin.com do not support the plan.
In fact, aside from the question of donation ratio, it is worth considering whether this so-called hashrate voting has practical significance. According to data from BTC.com, the five mining pools of the four supporters mentioned by Jiang Zhuoer have a total BCH computing power of more than 51%, reaching 54.5%, occupying a considerable say, and it is difficult for other miners to have a real speech right.
Despite the opposition of the plan, it was still proceeding methodically.
On February 18, according to an official BitcoinABC tweet, the ABC team has added the code for the donation plan to the ABC version 0.21.0 client. At the same time, TobiasRuck and Antony Zegers of the ABC team, and the BCHD team have stated their support for the donation plan at this node.
On the one hand, there is no consensus, and on the other hand, donations need to be opened.
This self-talking attitude caused strong dissatisfaction in the community. On February 19th, Freetrader, one of the earliest developers in the BCH ecosystem, created a full node called BCH Node (BCHN) [11], This version will remove the donation plan, express protest, and then release the PGP signatures of the BCHN project supporters. The supporters gathered, including Alexander Levin Jr, CEO of Asicseer.com, Pokkst of Crescent Cash wallet, Tipbitcoin cash, bitcoincashj , Tubing host Collin Enstad and others.
Fragmentation and unification
To this point, the community split into two camps, led by the ABC team and Electron Cash wallet, BCHD, etc. to support the donation plan, and BU, BCHN, etc. formed an opposition. In fact, various disputes have already raised concerns from the domestic and foreign communities that BCH may fork again.
Fragmentation, strife ...
This softened Jiang Zhuoer's attitude in LongBit's online live broadcast, saying that at least basic community consensus must be reached before donations can begin.
Subsequently, at the second meeting of the BCH developers, Séchet of the ABC team who initially stood up to support this plan also said loosely that there are currently differences, and miners will not ignore these opinions and go their own ways. If the community becomes better, Alternatives can also be implemented.
The concessions of the Séchets became a sign of gradual strife in foreign communities. Regarding the end of the entire donation plan, it ended with a post by Jiang Zhuoer's Weibo.
In the article "Talking about the differences and recent market trends of BTC, BCH, and BSV" on March 5, Jiang Zhuoer said that due to a lot of opposition from the community, especially from major BCH supporters like Roger, the donations of miners will not be implemented. . The dispute, which lasted more than a month, finally ended with the termination of the donation plan.
In fact, the donation plan was updated many times, and the donation share easily changed without letting us see the basis for its formulation, as Roger ver said "somewhat randomly". And "voluntary and democratic" computing power voting, if someone finally voted No in the computing power vote can influence the result, which will also lead to thinking about computing power dictatorship.
submitted by FmzQuant to u/FmzQuant [link] [comments]

The 8 Skills to Be a Good Miner

Many people may feel quite confused about their low profit now. Maybe you forget to think about the small details when you are mining. Small little details will make big difference in your final income.
Now, i want to share you the 8 skills to improve your benefits.
1, Get a cheaper power
Everyone knows the power is the most charge in mining, if we can find a cheaper electricity, it will be good. So, how to get a cheaper electricity?
55% of the mining is in China, and 40% of the mining is in Sichuan China. Why? Because there are many hydroelectric power station in there. So, you can find a place near the station and get a cheaper electricity from them.
If you can find free electricity, it is the best anyway
2, Choose low w/t machine
As you know, low comsuption machine is very popular those days, like S17 pro 53t, T17 42t. They are 7nm technical, the w/t is low and it can even overclock, it maybe a good choice. Also, we need to consider the price of machine.
Cheap price machine means fast ROI, But low W/T machine has a bright future.
3, Buy miner when BTC begin to raise after long drop
When BTC price keep falling, of course the machine will be cheaper and cheaper. When the BTC price begin to raise, we can buy miner at that time, because the price is the cheapset and you can earn money back soon.
Normally at that time, the good machine will be sold out quickly, when the market feedback that those machine are good, you may be late to get the chance. So, make your plan for purchasing before, when price down, get them.
4, Do not forget BCH, BSV, ZEN coin
Do remember SHA-256 Algorithm can mining BCH and BSV as well. Sometimes those coin may get even a better profits than BTC.
Some miner has auto setting for BTC, but you can choose BSV and BCH mining if you set it,
5, Notice the half reward period information
Because the half reward time is coming in 2020, there will be a chance or a risk for it. Many low hashrate machine may be out of the style and high hashrate will be more competitive.
Low your risk and not to buy those cheap machine now
6, Choose a good future crypto currency
There are many coins in this field now, we need to analyse and find a better direction for mining. Like Z11, many people use it for ZEN mining nowadays, and their benefits is top now.
Also, people buy many S17, it can earn money back before next year half reward time. And they believe the BTC price will increase creazily as last two times.
7, Make plan for your selling of coin or machine
As you know, the price of the BTC changes everytime, we can mining the BTC first and keep it in hand, do not sell it every day. It is very stupid. Just sell it when price high, you do not need to take any risk if you do not buy BTC directy. We do not need to care about the low price situation, we only need to wait. When chance come, get it.
Same for machine
8. Don't be fooled by the mining calculator
Many sites calculate mining profits based on hardware and electricity prices. If you've never mined before, you might be happy to see the numbers provided by these websites and calculators and think, "I'll make a fortune!"
However, these websites don't tell you: in addition to the cost of electricity, there may be other current costs, such as maintenance, cooling, rent, labor, etc. Generally, the hash rate and power consumption of the device are slightly different from what the factory says.
This difference is more common in unpopular brands. You can better understand the actual hash rate and the actual power consumption by watching the miner test video on YouTube. In addition, depending on the distance from the meter to the device and the type of cable used, the power loss from the meter to the device can be as high as 200 watts.
In addition to the cost of mining machines, some initial costs are required to prepare the infrastructure, such as cooling and venting, cabling and distribution, shelves, network and monitoring equipment, safety measures, etc.
The network difficulty is constantly changing and increasing at a significant speed, which directly affects the mining revenue. You can check the bitcoin network difficulty chart to see its growth rate, but your miner will not always be 100% active.
Due to maintenance, network problems, ore pool problems, power problems and many other problems, the miner may be offline for several hours. I suggest that you consider setting the normal operation time of the miner to less than 97% when calculating. We have rich mining experience in professional ore pools, and the normal operation time of these mining machines will not exceed 97-98%.
Thats all, hope those information will help you become a good mining investor.
submitted by 15Ansel to BitcoinMining [link] [comments]

*Must read for newcomers* My friend worked in the Bitcoin industry (broker) for a couple of years and has been involved in the crypto world since 2014. This is what he had to say about the recent politics of btc when someone asked him on our crypto trading channel

(He first sent this article https://medium.com/@StopAndDecrypt/thats-not-bitcoin-this-is-bitcoin-95f05a6fd6c2, then followed up with this reply when someone told him he had no idea what he just read)
"There was a big scaling debate and in the end there were two sides. Those that wanted to scale using bigger blocksize (short term solution that doesn't work long term and also causes more centralization) vs those who wanted to scale using changes in the code to make the network more efficient aka SEGWIT+second layer scaling solutions (bitcoin becomes massive settlement layer, and second layer solutions can take care of verifying your $3.25 coffee payment).
On the big block side you had (most) miners because they were only able to see the short term benefits of increased blocksize and they do not care about network centralization. Also, a chinese miner controlling a sizeable chunk of the network's hashrate had access to (and was in the process of patenting) this technology called ASICBOOST which is an exploit in bitcoin code that allows you to "cheat" and get extra hashing power out of your miners. Essentially they had an unfair advantage and the KEY is that the segwit upgrade fixes this exploit. Alongside these miners you had a couple of misguided (but incredibly wealthy because of early adoption) individuals who either have a reason to see bitcoin fail (like they are heavily invested in altcoins now) or they are too pigheaded to back down when wrong (or some of them I'm sure are not actually intelligent enough to understand they are wrong).
On the Segwit side you had all the core developers (the guys who worked side by side with satoshi to build all this and have been contributing to the code for years every day), the majority of the userbase, AND the vast majority of bitcoin companies. The two sides were basically arguing over who had control over bitcoin - was it the miners, or was it the users? Was it those who chose which software to run (users) or was it those who verified transactions for that software (miners)? (The answer as you will see shortly is Users). So basically these miners were stalling the upgrade because it would mean the end of their unfair (AND patented) advantage. This massive stalemate in the debate caused a community led uprising known as the User Activated Soft Fork movement (UASF). These guys basically said "We're switching our nodes to Segwit software starting Aug 1 and we will be rejecting all mined blocks that do not comply with the new code". This forced the miners' hand as they realized they would either be forked off the network or have to go along with the new upgrade to make sure everything continued to go smoothly (including their profits).
The movement gained enough support to freak out some big money bitcoin CEOs who got together in a room with the miners and made a deal behind closed doors known as the New York Agreement (NYA). This is where Segwit2x was born. The key to note here is that not a single core dev was invited to this meeting (in fact, not a single competent dev in general was invited). The terms of the deal were: You guys agree to implement Segwit now, and then we'll agree to an increase in block size later (November). Deal was made and obviously the majority of the user community was in an uproar because bitcoiners hate closed door deals (and they should for good reason).
That being said, it got Segwit activated because it gave miners an easy way to safe face and go with segwit and the community instead of seeing their profits get wrecked by a messy chainsplit. However, do you remember that sneaky miner who had patented the ASICBOOST technology? Well he was part of the NYA and he decided to fork off anyway and create Bitcoin Cash. So stop right here and realize that the only reason we have bitcoin cash is so that some miner with a ton of hashing power could keep his unfair advantage over the network (he stills mainly mines bitcoin by the way because he would go out of business if he switched entirely to bitcoin cash). Also at this point, technically the NYA was broken because the whole point of it was to avoid a chainsplit and go with segwit followed by a block size increase whereas bitcoin cash was a clear chainsplit.
So for a few months everything was ok because we had Segwit, core devs were still with us, and (supposedly) anyone who wanted bigger blocks had forked off to bitcoin cash right? Wrong. See it turns out that those guys who made that backroom deal with the miners also had their own interests which involve removing the current core developers from their (imagined) seat of power. It is classic old school business politics - they don't care that core the devs are based around principles of meritocracy and peer review. They just want to have more of a say in the direction bitcoin takes. At this point, you might be thinking, "Ok but its fair for companies who use a product to have a say in its development, right?" NO. Not when the "product" at stake is meant to be an incredibly secure, incorruptible ledger that can hold trillions of dollars in wealth and still be hosted online accross the world.
The fact is that no one understands the code better than the core developers and no one has more of an interest in seeing bitcoin stay decentralized and secure than these guys do. These guys literally cum buckets everyday to how much they love coding bitcoin. If Satoshi is Cypher Jesus then these guys are his Apostles. And on the other hand you have some severely misguided corporate buffoons who think they have the knowledge to negotiate a compromise with a group who has nothing but short term profit in their sights. And when the core developers are like "wtf dude?" and the community stands behind them, then these guys resort to essentially trying to kick core out of bitcoin by starting a new chain. A new chain which was based on a compromise that no one wants or needs anymore. And the excuse these CEO's are hiding behind is "We don't want to go back on our word." Classic business mindset vs coding mindset.
ur word." Classic business mindset vs coding mindset.
Now we come to the current situation where there are basically 4 sides
  1. Core developers, and those supporting them
  2. The (remaining) signers of the NYA and those supporting Segwit2x
  3. Malicious third parties who just want to see bitcoin fail (invested in altcoins/bitcoin cash or they are the Joker and just want to see shit burn)
  4. Innocent bystanders
The core developers are continuing to code and improve bitcoin and they are working on second layer solutions. They haven't stopped development and have actually made a TON of beneficial changes to the code since the Segwit upgrade allowed them to. Being non-political or atleast being shit politicians, these guys do not know how to handle themselves with other people and either don't speak much or come off as pretentious d*bags (trust me I used to hate them before I smartened up).
The remaining NYA signers. I say remaining because alot of companies left when they saw the massive backlash from the community. The only signers left are miners and then a group of around 30 companies which all have ties to Barry Silbert's holding company Digital Currency Group and suprise surprise who do you think got that NYA meeting together in the first place? Silly Silbert indeed. He's basically trying to do a sort of corporate take over of bitcoin where he decides who is writing the code and how they write it. Oh also I should note here that these guys have 1 developer working on the Segwit2x code. Yes 1, Jeff Garzik. Coding ability? Mediocre at best. All he did was copy and paste the entire bitcoin core code (because its open source) and changed the one little value that dictates block size. He changed a 1 to a 2 haha! And when he tried to make other changes he made critical mistakes that had to be fixed by CORE DEVELOPERS hahahaha! So how the f* does that even compare to an army of geeks who have been coding bitcoin for years and coding in general for decades who are all constantly trying to find mistakes in each others' work. SO people supporting Segwit2x are either severely misguided, hate core devs, or don't have all the information to make an informed decision.
Now the malicious actors. These are people who have a vested interest in seeing bitcoin crumble. I'm talking about big altcoin investors and bitcoin cash supporters (yes the guys who have ASICBOOST and want are the reason for this whole mess in the first place). And Segwit2x has presented them with a beautiful vector of attack. Divide and conquer. Right? And whereas with bitcoin cash there was replay protection (meaning the split was pretty clean and bitcoin was largely unaffected) this time they haven't got any planned - so should things go through as planned, things could get messy.
Then you have all those innocent bystanders who don't really know what to think anymore. Things have gotten so convoluted and complicated that it is hard to follow who wants what anymore. These are the people who will get the most fucked by something like Segwit2x because they won't understand the risks as it is happening and they won't have the knowledge to know which wallets to support. Imagine Segwit2x happens and one wallet sticks with the core version of bitcoin and the other wallet supports the segwit2x version but they both just say "Bitcoin".
That is why people are soooooooooooooo strongly opposed to Segwit2x more than anything. It is nothing more and nothing less than a hostile takeover attempt. And at this point that should be more than clear because why else would you still support the compromise made with miners who broke the compromise by creating bitcoin cash? No one wanted Segwit2x in the first place. People wanted bigger blocks, or segwit, not both. Segwit2x was never a faction in the debate. It was a faction that was spawned by those who created the NYA because they saw an opportunity take control of the software development from a group of developers who have been working on it for years and who strongly oppose corporate interests getting involved in bitcoin development."
(I will name and shame the main malicious\misguided actors and add details based on personal discussion with him and add articles for further reading)
Barry Silbert
Erik Vorhees
Jeff Garzik
Roger Ver
Jihan Wu (the miner mentioned) - only wants more money and power
https://medium.com/@WhalePanda/asicboost-the-reason-why-bitmain-blocked-segwit-901fd346ee9f
there you guys have it, a comprehensive rundown of bitcoin politics from the point of view of someone who supports the original vision of Satoshi Nakamoto to the core. I hope it informs those of you who got confused by the FUD.
Bitcoin belongs to the community, always and forever
submitted by HavocMMA to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Canaan's new ASIC is a Pipe Dream, not an Ethereum Threat

So, yesterday Kristy-Leigh Minehan posted on Twitter that a company named Canaan announced an ASIC that is capable of 0.68W/Mhs
That's 2200Mh/s running at 1500w
https://twitter.com/OhGodAGirl/status/1176938519866089473
Here is a list of how it compares to other ASICs and GPUs.
https://blog.miningstore.com/blog/ethereum-mining-hardware-for-2019
She used this tweet to promote the need for ProgPoW
Today, I am attempting to explain that Canaan is not a threat to centralize Ethereum mining with their ASICs.
First, I cannot find any information regarding Canaan announcing an Ethereum ASIC other than Kristy's twitter post
There is only one article written about it and it uses Kristy's twitter post as their source.
https://cryptoslate.com/ethereum-asic-dominates-gpu-performance/
Nothing on Canaan's website talks about this miner
Nor does Canaan's twitter account mention anything like this.
If we look closely at Kristy's twitter picture, you can see the Canaan Ethereum miner will be called the V10.
I cannot find any info anywhere on this miner.
You would think that if Canaan is unveiling a new product, they would be talking about it more to spread awareness and raise hype, but they aren't.
I mean, they made a big to-do when they announced the A10 bitcoin miner in March, so why are they posting nothing about the V10 ethereum miner.
https://twitter.com/canaanio/status/1111513725733724160
And a google search will show many many more articles written about the bitcoin A10 after its announcement.
I'm not saying the announcement isn't real, just that I find it odd that the company isn't talking about it themselves.
Canaan did respond to a tweet from “cryptoState”, the writer's of the article based on Kristy's tweet.
Canaan replied that the v10 is not an official worldwide Canaan product.
https://twitter.com/canaanio/status/1177088253431668736
and further in the cryptostate article, Canaan says “It is a little hard to explain, but those are not products designed and built by Canaan engineering. They are products sold by the domestic sales team and are not an official worldwide Canaan product,”
I do not know what that means exactly. If it means it's not an official Canaan product, or that it won't be available worldwide, or what.
But this is the first clue to me that it isn't anything to worry about.
If it's not an official Canaan product, then it doesn't seem like it will have support from Canaan to bring it to market.
It won't be marketed by Canaan, use it's supply chain, it's business resources and contacts, use it's support system, or be built by Canaan.
Next, yes 0.68W/Mhs is more efficient than GPUs, but that isn't all that matters when miners choose the devices to use.
What matters also is how much the machine costs.
If the V10 is price too high, then it's not something to worry about.
Without a price, Kristy can't claim in good faith that the V10 is something Ethereum needs to worry about and a reason ProgPoW needs to be adopted.
I'm not sure how to price the thing, myself, but at current ETH prices and hashrate, it would make $2200 in 4 months.
I think generally ASIC mfgs price their machines to break even in 3-4 months.
So that would be the machine will cost around $2200.
BUT, that's only if ONE machine is running on the network.
The more machines on the network, the less profitable they are.
If we look at the Avalon A1066, it's november batch costs $1390, and has a break-even time of 464 months at current bitcoin prices.
So it seems to me the Canaan V10 will be quite a bit more expensive than $2200.
Which doesn't make it feasible for that many people to buy.
Next, there was no product on display at the New Era Mining Summit, where this product was announced.
Only some graphics of numbers they claim.
Nor can I find any technical documentation talking about how they plan to achieve the advertised hashrate
I tweeted Kristy telling her that this seems, at best, like just an idea to me, to help them raise money and that it takes more than an idea to bring an ASIC to market.
https://twitter.com/AltcoinXP/status/1177290387205054464
Kristy then blocked me on Twitter and told me to stop spreading misinformation.
https://imgur.com/lWEAWbd
So, now let's talk about the article I replied to her with, claiming that Canaan doesn't have enough funding for this.
Granted, I said this without doing as much research as I could've, but let's see if what I said holds true.
Here is the article I linked in the tweet.
https://www.coindesk.com/avalon-bitcoin-miner-maker-canaan-is-plotting-another-ipo-attempt
Notice the date this article was published. March 27th 2019.
Notice that Avalon announce their Bitcoin A10 miner the next day.
https://twitter.com/canaanio/status/1111513725733724160
Perhaps to help attract funding from new investors, which the Coindesk article says they haven't been able to bring on any new investors in a long time.
I'm not going to cite the whole article here, read it for yourself, but it generally explains that Canaan is unable to attract new funding.
Also, Xianfu Lui, a 17.2% shareholder in Canaan left the company in February, so I doubt he invested money into Canaan.
https://www.coindesk.com/co-founder-quits-avalon-mining-chip-maker-canaan-over-differences
Here are some more Coindesk articles speaking about Canaan trying to raise money.
https://www.coindesk.com/huobi-plans-backdoor-ipo-attempt-in-hong-kong-document-suggests
“After mining giant Bitmain’s IPO attempt in Hong Kong was allowed to expire, apparently due to reluctance from HKEX, it’s reportedly now planning to list in the U.S. Another miner manufacturer, Canaan Creative, is also reported to have already confidentially filed in the U.S. after a failed HKEX attempt. “
https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-miner-maker-canaan-confidentially-files-for-ipo-in-us-report
https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-miner-canaans-ipo-likely-delayed-after-hong-kong-filing-expires
“The Reuters report, citing anonymous sources, further said the HKEX and financial regulators in Hong Kong have raised questions over Canaan’s business model, given the volatile nature of cryptocurrencies. As such, the news agency said the IPO might not go ahead this year, since there have been no updates from a listing hearing with the HKEX. “
So seems to be Caanan is having a hard time finding funding for their endeavors. Pretty much every single article on Coindesk about them is about them trying to get funding and failing at it.
So do they have enough money to bring the V10 to market AND bring enough V10s to be a problem?
They would need to produce 45,000 units to get 50% of the Ethereum mining power.
Current network is 197TH/s https://bitinfocharts.com/ethereum/
Currently Bitmain is estimated to have produced less than 20,000 units since the Antminer E3's announcement in April 2018.
https://www.reddit.com/ethereum/comments/d8fuvj/an_argument_against_progpow_a_day_part_1/f1axc2c/
https://www.coindesk.com/bitmain-confirms-release-first-ever-ethereum-asic-miners
Bitmain being a much larger company than Canaan, it seems unlikely they will produce 45,000 units quick enough to become a problem.
Anyway,
For those of you that don't know, Canaan manages the Avalon bitcoin ASICs and have done so since 2014. Canaan is fulling in charge of Avalon.
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Avalon
Maybe I should've said that sooner, I don't know. I'm just typing as I come up with stuff.
But we can look at Avalon's bitcoin past to determine what the future ethereum miner supply might look like. Keep in mind though, this was also during a time when they were well-funded.
I'm not sure what their bank account looks like now, but they have been in the red every year since their existance, so I have to assume they have less money now than when they were releasing bitcoin miners
Avalon announce the A10 March 2019, and started shipping pre-orders in October 2019.
If the V10 follows suit, we won't see a V10 in the hands of miners until April 2020
https://www.coindesk.com/demand-for-new-bitcoin-miners-is-again-outstripping-supply
Ok, I'm done. That's all I put together and why I don't believe the Canaan ASIC that was announced is a concern warranting the immediate adoption of ProgPoW
Thanks for reading.
submitted by Anthony-AltcoinXP to ethereum [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Price Chart & Analysis (Feb 12th, 2020) Bitcoin Price Chart & Analysis 2/10/2020 Bitcoin BULLS Might Have A Shot At BREAKOUT Pettycoin: Losing Tiny Amounts of Bitcoin At Scale! [linux.conf.au 2014] Bitcoin Cash Mining 2018  BCH Mining in May

The higher the hashrate of the entire Bitcoin network, the more machines there are in total and the more difficult it is to mine Bitcoin. Another way of looking at it, is that hashrate is a measure of how healthy the Bitcoin network is. It’s good for Bitcoin if the overall hashrate is high, because it makes the network more secure. Top 10 Cryptocurrency Hashrate Charts for 2020 (BEAM) Beam Hashrate Chart (BTC) Bitcoin Hashrate Chart (DASH) Dash Hashrate Chart (ETH) Ethereum Hashrate Chart (ETC) Ethereum-Classic Hashrate Chart (ZEN) Horizen Hashrate Chart (LTC) Litecoin Hashrate Chart ... The SHA256 hashrate that secures the Bitcoin network has grown massively during the last few years, as Bitcoin’s processing power has touched all-time highs in 2020. Bitcoin Average hashrate (hash/s) per day Chart. Transactions Block Size Sent from addresses Difficulty Hashrate Price in USD Mining Profitability Sent in USD Avg. Transaction Fee Median Transaction Fee Block Time Market Capitalization Avg. Transaction Value Median Transaction Value Tweets GTrends Active Addresses Top100ToTotal Fee in Reward The Bitcoin hashrate chart provides the current Bitcoin hashrate history in graph format with an option to expand the Bitcoin global hashrate chart time frame back to 2009. Bitcoin Hashrate Now: 116.93 EH/s Oct 07, 2020 07:58 AM UTC - 116,932,872,907,258,100,000 H/s

[index] [20578] [10112] [26647] [31533] [1862] [34948] [21819] [11297] [13644] [7330]

Bitcoin Price Chart & Analysis (Feb 12th, 2020)

Found an interesting Bitcoin pattern we haven't been looking at, so I wanted to go over how it ties into current Bitcoin charts we have been tracking. BTC price update. Referenced Trading View ... When you are in need of financial help, you will be able to request assistance for your $100 plus growth amount at the rate of 100% per month at the current BITCOIN exchange rate. REFERRAL BONUS current bitcoin network and a new "pettycoin" network, which trades bitcoin's robustness for scalability. When complete, the result should be a network suitable for genuine microtransactions at ... This video discusses the current bitcoin prices and technical analysis of the recent price action. Thank you for watching! Join our community of thousands of analysts working together to learn the ... The Great Crypto Debate: Part II One year after Bitcoin hit nearly $20,000, what can we expect from crypto in 2019? Participants: Caroline Hyde (Bloomberg News) Joe Weisenthal (Bloomberg News ...

#