Bitcoin cryptocurrency ATM kiosk growth in Chicago

(Chicago Fed Letter Dec '13) Bitcoin: A primer

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NKLA resigns

Nikola in the spotlight after founder resigns
Nikola (NASDAQ:NKLA) shares tumbled 30% in premarket trade after founder Trevor Milton stepped down as executive chairman and member of the company's board, adding that he would defend himself against "false allegations leveled by outside detractors." The resignation comes in the wake of claims made by short-seller Hindenburg Research, who described Nikola as a "an intricate fraud built on dozens of lies," as well as reported SEC and DOJ investigations into the company. The news could also spell trouble for General Motors (NYSE:GM), which recently took an 11% stake in Nikola and said it would produce its marquee hydrogen fuel cell electric pickup truck called the Badger. More pain for stocks
Things aren't looking brighter for U.S. equities following Wall Street's third straight weekly decline, with Dow futures down 2.1% and contracts tied to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq off 1.9%. Little progress has been made on a new coronavirus stimulus package as Republicans and Democrats remain at an impasse, while the negotiations could become even more complicated following the death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. Investors also appear worried that a global recovery could be hampered by a rise in coronavirus infections, especially with no vaccine breakthrough yet.
Oracle deal for TikTok scores Trump's 'blessing'
Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) has reached a deal with China's ByteDance (BDNCE) to host video-sharing app TikTok and take a minority stake in the company along with Walmart (NYSE:WMT). "I have given the deal my blessing,” President Trump declared, adding that new unit TikTok Global would create more than 25,000 new jobs in the U.S. and pay more than $5B in new tax dollars to the Treasury. Meanwhile, Tencent's (OTCPK:TCEHY) WeChat is set to remain operating in the U.S. after a federal judge issued an injunction against Trump's executive order that would have banned the Chinese social media app.
Musk rallies the troops before 'Battery Day'
"We have a shot at a record quarter for vehicle deliveries, but will have to rally hard to achieve it," said Tesla's (NASDAQ:TSLA) Elon Musk in an internal email entitled 'All hands on deck!' Tesla hopes to deliver half a million vehicles in 2020, and has delivered roughly 179,000 through the first half. The letter also comes ahead of the company's annual shareholder meeting tomorrow and its first-ever highly anticipated "Battery Day" for investors.
Energy transition
Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B) is jumping on the bandwagon of its European rivals BP (NYSE:BP) and Eni (NYSE:E), which have both announced plans to reduce their focus on oil and gas in the coming decade. Sources tell Reuters that the oil major is looking to slash up to 40% off the cost of producing oil and gas so it can overhaul its business and focus more on renewable energy and power markets. Shell's new cost-cutting review, known internally as Project Reshape and expected to be completed this year, will affect its three main divisions and any savings will come on top of a $4B target set in the wake of the COVID-19 crisis.
HBO outpaces Netflix at the Emmys
HBO (NYSE:T) once again held off Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) in this year's Emmy race, taking home 30 trophies including 11 for dystopian drama Watchmen, which was the night's biggest winner. HBO's media family saga Succession also had a strong showing, as well as the final season of Schitt's Creek and Disney's (NYSE:DIS) The Mandalorian. The dogfight between HBO and Netflix, which scored 21 wins, is part of a much larger trend in the TV awards circuit: subscription-based platforms are creating more Emmy Award winning content.
Suspicious transactions
Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB) appears to have facilitated more than half of the leaked $2T of suspicious transactions that were flagged to the U.S. government over nearly two decades, according to Deutsche Welle, though the lender said the incidents "have already been investigated and led to regulatory resolutions." Shares of HSBC (NYSE:HSBC) and Standard Chartered (OTCPK:SCBFF) fell on the suspicious fund movement, as well as JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM), BNY Mellon (NYSE:BK) and Barclays (NYSE:BCS), which were also named in the report. Financial firms are required by law to alert FinCEN (the U.S. Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network) when they detect activities like money laundering and sanctions violations, though such filings are not necessarily evidence of criminal misconduct. DB -8% premarket.
What else is happening...
Garrett Motion (NYSE:GTX) files for bankruptcy with $2.1B KPS offer.
Walmart (WMT) widens fashion focus with new private clothing label.
Different efficacy bars in Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) and Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) COVID-19 trials.
Movies still face Catch-22, needing both viewers and blockbusters to return.
United (NASDAQ:UAL) the latest airline to press for more relief.
Today's Markets
In Asia, Japan +0.2%. Hong Kong -2.1%. China -0.6%. India -2.1%. In Europe, at midday, London -3.4%. Paris -3.2%. Frankfurt -3.2%. Futures at 6:20, Dow -2.1%. S&P -1.9%. Nasdaq -1.9%. Crude -2.3% to $40.37. Gold -1.3% to $1937.60. Bitcoin -2.1% to $10734. Ten-year Treasury Yield -3 bps to 0.66%
Today's Economic Calendar
8:30 Chicago Fed National Activity Index 6:00 PM Fed's Williams Speech 6:00 PM Fed's Kaplan Speech
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End of day summary - 02/27

The Dow plunged 1190.95, or 4.42%, to 25766.64, the Nasdaq lost 414.30, or 4.61%, to 8566.48, and the S&P 500 dropped 137.63, or 4.42%, to 2978.76.

It was a frenetic day of trading action on /thewallstreet. The stock market extended its recent sell-off by more than 4% on Thursday in a volatile session, as the widening spread of the coronavirus heightened pessimism among investors. The S&P 500 dropped as much as 3.5% shortly after the open, then cut its losses to 0.6% by midday, but ultimately closed at session lows with a 4.4% decline.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (-4.4%), Nasdaq Composite (-4.6%), and Russell 2000 (-3.5%) experienced similar price action. Each of the major indices fell into correction territory, which is often defined as a decline of at least 10% from a recent high, and today's drop sent the S&P 500 well below its 200-day moving average (3046.58) amid heavy selling into the close.
From a sector perspective, all 11 S&P 500 sectors fell between 3.3% (health care) and 5.6% (real estate). Other notable moves included WTI crude falling 3.0% to 47.24/bbl to extend its weekly decline to 12.1% and the CBOE Volatility Index surging 42.1% to 39.16 in a protection trade against further equity weakness.
Regarding COVID-19, the CDC acknowledged the first coronavirus case of "unknown origin" in the U.S., which raised concerns about a community spread of the virus. California's governor fueled concerns by saying 28 people have tested positive and another 8,400 people are being monitored because of their travel.
The impact to global supply chains or consumer spending remains uncertain, but Goldman Sachs warned there could be no U.S. earnings growth in 2020 if the virus becomes widespread. MSFT -7.1%, meanwhile, was the latest high-profile company to issue a quarterly revenue warning, specifically for its More Personal Computing segment.
Current, and past, Fed officials offered their views on the matter. In an opinion piece for The Wall Street Journal, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh argued that the Fed and other central banks should cut rates due to the coronavirus, while Chicago Fed President Evans reiterated the Fed's stance that it's still premature to provide guidance without more data.
Besides the coronavirus news, equity investors appeared to be taking cues from the Treasury market. For instance, the S&P 500's early morning low coincided with the high in the Treasury market. At session's end, the 2-yr yield declined five basis points to 1.10%, and the 10-yr yield declined basis points to 1.30%.
Not all stocks closed lower, though. Face mask company (MMM) +0.8% and Bleach company (CLX) +0.4% managed to eke out small gains amid speculation that demand for some of their products will increase due to the coronavirus.
Among the noteworthy gainers were VIR and NVAX, which surged 50% and 18%, respectively, as coronavirus fears mount. Both companies are working on coronavirus vaccines. Also higher were ETSY and SQ, which gained a respective 16% and 11% after reporting quarterly results.
Among the notable losers was TSLA, which slid 8% after Bloomberg reported registrations of new Teslas in China plunged 46% last month as the coronavirus outbreak adds to a slump in the country's car market. SPCE fell 17% after Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas downgraded the shares to Equal Weight and Credit Suisse analyst Robert Spingarn also downgraded the stock to Neutral following with the shares up 185% year-to-date.
In earnings news, BBY reported better than expected sales and earnings for the fourth quarter and raised its quarterly dividend by 10%. Last night, BKNG reported "strong" Q4 results, but also cited a significant impact from the coronavirus on its forward outlook, stating that its wider than typical guidance ranges are due to "the high level of uncertainty in forecasting the coronavirus and its associated impact on the company and the travel industry generally."
In its own more optimistic coronavirus update,SBUX said it is "seeing the early signs of a recovery" in China. In a letter to employees posted on its corporate blog, Starbucks CEO Kevin Johnson reported that the coffee giant now has 85% of stores open across China as it continues to assess the ongoing impact of the disease outbreak.
Elsewhere in Europe, Stoxx 600 closed 3.6% lower provisionally, officially entering correction territory as it was off more than 10% from its record high notched on Feb. 19 last year.

Currency

The U.S. Dollar Index slid 0.5% to 98.51, widening this week's loss to 0.8%.

Treasury

The Treasury market has been the epicenter of concerns about the global growth outlook, as well as the frayed psychology pertaining to the COVID-19 outbreak. The 10-yr note yield is down four basis points this morning to 1.27%, leaving it down 19 basis points on the week and 65 basis points on the year.
Today, the fed funds futures market expects that a rate cut will happen as soon as the March 18 meeting, followed by another cut in June. Treasuries briefly turned negative in midday trade but returned toward their opening levels after California Governor Gavin Newsom said that 28 people in California have tested positive for the coronavirus while more than 8,000 other people are being monitored.

Commodity

Oil prices continued their steep decline on Thursday, with U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude falling more than 5% at the low to $45.88 per barrel — a price not seen since Jan. 2019 — as fears of the coronavirus outbreak, and what it could mean for crude demand, continue to batter prices.

Crypto

Bitcoin was fighting to keep support at a key level on Feb. 27 as markets worldwide continued to suffer from fears over coronavirus.

YTD

AH News

  • BYND reports EBITDA: $9.5M (est $5.76M), Net Rev: $98.5M (est $79.8M).Sees 2020 Net Revenue: $490M To $510M (est $485.7M)

Thoughts on Corona

It is becoming abundantly clear that the spread of the coronavirus is not going to be stopped. What is not clear is the extent of the economic damage that is going to be done by its spread before the world gets comfortable with the notion that the coronavirus is debilitating, but not necessarily deadly for most sufferers.
The latter is the accepted perspective when dealing with the flu, but because COVID-19 is so new and won't reportedly have a vaccine to guard against it for some time, there is some understandable fear about contracting the virus that is prompting some extreme measures to contain it. Those measures have been detrimental to the world economy in a number of respects, which include but are not limited to shutting down supply chains, restricting travel, and preventing people from going to work.
At the same time, some considerable psychological damage is being done with the understanding that governments around the globe are scrambling to deal with COVID-19 in a way that hasn't been seen in a really long time.
China locked down entire cities. Japan announced today that it will be closing elementary, middle, and high schools nationwide until late March. President Trump last night announced that Vice President Pence is being put in charge of the U.S. response to COVID-19.
The stock market, therefore, has been getting punched by a left-right combination of growth concerns and frayed investor psychology. That combination has led to some rapid-fire selling for a market that was already stretched and counting on stronger earnings growth in 2020, which now seems unlikely to pull through as expected.
The uncertainty surrounding the earnings outlook is a major headwind for the market at the moment.
Summary scraped from the interweb. Took 2.30 seconds.
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Greg Maxwell /u/nullc (CTO of Blockstream) has sent me two private messages in response to my other post today (where I said "Chinese miners can only win big by following the market - not by following Core/Blockstream."). In response to his private messages, I am publicly posting my reply, here:

Note:
Greg Maxell nullc sent me 2 short private messages criticizing me today. For whatever reason, he seems to prefer messaging me privately these days, rather than responding publicly on these forums.
Without asking him for permission to publish his private messages, I do think it should be fine for me to respond to them publicly here - only quoting 3 phrases from them, namely: "340GB", "paid off", and "integrity" LOL.
There was nothing particularly new or revealing in his messages - just more of the same stuff we've all heard before. I have no idea why he prefers responding to me privately these days.
Everything below is written by me - I haven't tried to upload his 2 PMs to me, since he didn't give permission (and I didn't ask). The only stuff below from his 2 PMs is the 3 phrases already mentioned: "340GB", "paid off", and "integrity". The rest of this long wall of text is just my "open letter to Greg."
TL;DR: The code that maximally uses the available hardware and infrastructure will win - and there is nothing Core/Blockstream can do to stop that. Also, things like the Berlin Wall or the Soviet Union lasted for a lot longer than people expected - but, conversely, the also got swept away a lot faster than anyone expected. The "vote" for bigger blocks is an ongoing referendum - and Classic is running on 20-25% of the network (and can and will jump up to the needed 75% very fast, when investors demand it due to the inevitable "congestion crisis") - which must be a massive worry for Greg/Adam/Austin and their backers from the Bilderberg Group. The debate will inevitably be decided in favor of bigger blocks - simply because the market demands it, and the hardware / infrastructure supports it.
Hello Greg Maxwell nullc (CTO of Blockstream) -
Thank you for your private messages in response to my post.
I respect (most of) your work on Bitcoin, but I think you were wrong on several major points in your messages, and in your overall economic approach to Bitcoin - as I explain in greater detail below:
Correcting some inappropriate terminology you used
As everybody knows, Classic or Unlimited or Adaptive (all of which I did mention specifically in my post) do not support "340GB" blocks (which I did not mention in my post).
It is therefore a straw-man for you to claim that big-block supporters want "340GB" blocks. Craig Wright may want that - but nobody else supports his crazy posturing and ridiculous ideas.
You should know that what actual users / investors (and Satoshi) actually do want, is to let the market and the infrastructure decide on the size of actual blocks - which could be around 2 MB, or 4 MB, etc. - gradually growing in accordance with market needs and infrastructure capabilities (free from any arbitrary, artificial central planning and obstructionism on the part of Core/Blockstream, and its investors - many of whom have a vested interest in maintaining the current debt-backed fiat system).
You yourself (nullc) once said somewhere that bigger blocks would probably be fine - ie, they would not pose a decentralization risk. (I can't find the link now - maybe I'll have time to look for it later.) I found the link:
https://np.reddit.com/btc/comments/43mond/even_a_year_ago_i_said_i_though_we_could_probably/
I am also surprised that you now seem to be among those making unfounded insinuations that posters such as myself must somehow be "paid off" - as if intelligent observers and participants could not decide on their own, based on the empirical evidence, that bigger blocks are needed, when the network is obviously becoming congested and additional infrastructure is obviously available.
Random posters on Reddit might say and believe such conspiratorial nonsense - but I had always thought that you, given your intellectual abilities, would have been able to determine that people like me are able to arrive at supporting bigger blocks quite entirely on our own, based on two simple empirical facts, ie:
  • the infrastructure supports bigger blocks now;
  • the market needs bigger blocks now.
In the present case, I will simply assume that you might be having a bad day, for you to erroneously and groundlessly insinuate that I must be "paid off" in order to support bigger blocks.
Using Occam's Razor
The much simpler explanation is that bigger-block supporters believe will get "paid off" from bigger gains for their investment in Bitcoin.
Rational investors and users understand that bigger blocks are necessary, based on the apparent correlation (not necessarily causation!) between volume and price (as mentioned in my other post, and backed up with graphs).
And rational network capacity planners (a group which you should be in - but for some mysterious reason, you're not) also understand that bigger blocks are necessary, and quite feasible (and do not pose any undue "centralization risk".)
As I have been on the record for months publicly stating, I understand that bigger blocks are necessary based on the following two objective, rational reasons:
  • because I've seen the graphs; and
  • because I've seen the empirical research in the field (from guys like Gavin and Toomim) showing that the network infrastructure (primarily bandwidth and latency - but also RAM and CPU) would also support bigger blocks now (I believe they showed that 3-4MB blocks would definitely work fine on the network now - possibly even 8 MB - without causing undue centralization).
Bigger-block supporters are being objective; smaller-block supporters are not
I am surprised that you no longer talk about this debate in those kind of objective terms:
  • bandwidth, latency (including Great Firewall of China), RAM, CPU;
  • centralization risk
Those are really the only considerations which we should be discussing in this debate - because those are the only rational considerations which might justify the argument for keeping 1 MB.
And yet you, and Adam Back adam3us, and your company Blockstream (financed by the Bilderberg Group, which has significant overlap with central banks and the legacy, debt-based, violence-backed fiat money system that has been running and slowing destroying our world) never make such objective, technical arguments anymore.
And when you make unfounded conspiratorial, insulting insinuations saying people who disagree with you on the facts must somehow be "paid off", then you are now talking like some "nobody" on Reddit - making wild baseless accusations that people must be "paid off" to support bigger blocks, something I had always thought was "beneath" you.
Instead, Occams's Razor suggests that people who support bigger blocks are merely doing so out of:
  • simple, rational investment policy; and
  • simple, rational capacity planning.
At this point, the burden is on guys like you (nullc) to explain why you support a so-called scaling "roadmap" which is not aligned with:
  • simple, rational investment policy; and
  • simple, rational capacity planning
The burden is also on guys like you to show that you do not have a conflict of interest, due to Blockstream's highly-publicized connections (via insurance giant AXA - whose CED is also the Chairman of the Bilderberg Group; and companies such as the "Big 4" accounting firm PwC) to the global cartel of debt-based central banks with their infinite money-printing.
In a nutshell, the argument of big-block supporters is simple:
If the hardware / network infrastructure supports bigger blocks (and it does), and if the market demands it (and it does), then we certainly should use bigger blocks - now.
You have never provided a counter-argument to this simple, rational proposition - for the past few years.
If you have actual numbers or evidence or facts or even legitimate concerns (regarding "centralization risk" - presumably your only argument) then you should show such evidence.
But you never have. So we can only assume either incompetence or malfeasance on your part.
As I have also publicly and privately stated to you many times, with the utmost of sincerity: We do of course appreciate the wealth of stellar coding skills which you bring to Bitcoin's cryptographic and networking aspects.
But we do not appreciate the obstructionism and centralization which you also bring to Bitcoin's economic and scaling aspects.
Bitcoin is bigger than you.
The simple reality is this: If you can't / won't let Bitcoin grow naturally, then the market is going to eventually route around you, and billions (eventually trillions) of investor capital and user payments will naturally flow elsewhere.
So: You can either be the guy who wrote the software to provide simple and safe Bitcoin scaling (while maintaining "reasonable" decentralization) - or the guy who didn't.
The choice is yours.
The market, and history, don't really care about:
  • which "side" you (nullc) might be on, or
  • whether you yourself might have been "paid off" (or under a non-disclosure agreement written perhaps by some investors associated the Bilderberg Group and the legacy debt-based fiat money system which they support), or
  • whether or not you might be clueless about economics.
Crypto and/or Bitcoin will move on - with or without you and your obstructionism.
Bigger-block supporters, including myself, are impartial
By the way, my two recent posts this past week on the Craig Wright extravaganza...
...should have given you some indication that I am being impartial and objective, and I do have "integrity" (and I am not "paid off" by anybody, as you so insultingly insinuated).
In other words, much like the market and investors, I don't care who provides bigger blocks - whether it would be Core/Blockstream, or Bitcoin Classic, or (the perhaps confusingly-named) "Bitcoin Unlimited" (which isn't necessarily about some kind of "unlimited" blocksize, but rather simply about liberating users and miners from being "limited" by controls imposed by any centralized group of developers, such as Core/Blockstream and the Bilderbergers who fund you).
So, it should be clear by now I don't care one way or the other about Gavin personally - or about you, or about any other coders.
I care about code, and arguments - regardless of who is providing such things - eg:
  • When Gavin didn't demand crypto proof from Craig, and you said you would have: I publicly criticized Gavin - and I supported you.
  • When you continue to impose needless obstactles to bigger blocks, then I continue to criticize you.
In other words, as we all know, it's not about the people.
It's about the code - and what the market wants, and what the infrastructure will bear.
You of all people should know that that's how these things should be decided.
Fortunately, we can take what we need, and throw away the rest.
Your crypto/networking expertise is appreciated; your dictating of economic parameters is not.
As I have also repeatedly stated in the past, I pretty much support everything coming from you, nullc:
  • your crypto and networking and game-theoretical expertise,
  • your extremely important work on Confidential Transactions / homomorphic encryption.
  • your desire to keep Bitcoin decentralized.
And I (and the network, and the market/investors) will always thank you profusely and quite sincerely for these massive contributions which you make.
But open-source code is (fortunately) à la carte. It's mix-and-match. We can use your crypto and networking code (which is great) - and we can reject your cripple-code (artificially small 1 MB blocks), throwing it where it belongs: in the garbage heap of history.
So I hope you see that I am being rational and objective about what I support (the code) - and that I am also always neutral and impartial regarding who may (or may not) provide it.
And by the way: Bitcoin is actually not as complicated as certain people make it out to be.
This is another point which might be lost on certain people, including:
And that point is this:
The crypto code behind Bitcoin actually is very simple.
And the networking code behind Bitcoin is actually also fairly simple as well.
Right now you may be feeling rather important and special, because you're part of the first wave of development of cryptocurrencies.
But if the cryptocurrency which you're coding (Core/Blockstream's version of Bitcoin, as funded by the Bilderberg Group) fails to deliver what investors want, then investors will dump you so fast your head will spin.
Investors care about money, not code.
So bigger blocks will eventually, inevitably come - simply because the market demand is there, and the infrastructure capacity is there.
It might be nice if bigger blocks would come from Core/Blockstream.
But who knows - it might actually be nicer (in terms of anti-fragility and decentralization of development) if bigger blocks were to come from someone other than Core/Blockstream.
So I'm really not begging you - I'm warning you, for your own benefit (your reputation and place in history), that:
Either way, we are going to get bigger blocks.
Simply because the market wants them, and the hardware / infrastructre can provide them.
And there is nothing you can do to stop us.
So the market will inevitably adopt bigger blocks either with or without you guys - given that the crypto and networking tech behind Bitcoin is not all that complex, and it's open-source, and there is massive pent-up investor demand for cryptocurrency - to the tune of multiple billions (or eventually trillions) of dollars.
It ain't over till the fat lady sings.
Regarding the "success" which certain small-block supports are (prematurely) gloating about, during this time when a hard-fork has not happened yet: they should bear in mind that the market has only begun to speak.
And the first thing it did when it spoke was to dump about 20-25% of Core/Blockstream nodes in a matter of weeks. (And the next thing it did was Gemini added Ethereum trading.)
So a sizable percentage of nodes are already using Classic. Despite desperate, irrelevant attempts of certain posters on these forums to "spin" the current situation as a "win" for Core - it is actually a major "fail" for Core.
Because if Core/Blocksteam were not "blocking" Bitcoin's natural, organic growth with that crappy little line of temporary anti-spam kludge-code which you and your minions have refused to delete despite Satoshi explicitly telling you to back in 2010 ("MAX_BLOCKSIZE = 1000000"), then there would be something close to 0% nodes running Classic - not 25% (and many more addable at the drop of a hat).
This vote is ongoing.
This "voting" is not like a normal vote in a national election, which is over in one day.
Unfortunately for Core/Blockstream, the "voting" for Classic and against Core is actually two-year-long referendum.
It is still ongoing, and it can rapidly swing in favor of Classic at any time between now and Classic's install-by date (around January 1, 2018 I believe) - at any point when the market decides that it needs and wants bigger blocks (ie, due to a congestion crisis).
You know this, Adam Back knows this, Austin Hill knows this, and some of your brainwashed supporters on censored forums probably know this too.
This is probably the main reason why you're all so freaked out and feel the need to even respond to us unwashed bigger-block supporters, instead of simply ignoring us.
This is probably the main reason why Adam Back feels the need to keep flying around the world, holding meetings with miners, making PowerPoint presentations in English and Chinese, and possibly also making secret deals behind the scenes.
This is also why Theymos feels the need to censor.
And this is perhaps also why your brainwashed supporters from censored forums feel the need to constantly make their juvenile, content-free, drive-by comments (and perhaps also why you evidently feel the need to privately message me your own comments now).
Because, once again, for the umpteenth time in years, you've seen that we are not going away.
Every day you get another worrisome, painful reminder from us that Classic is still running on 25% of "your" network.
And everyday get another worrisome, painful reminder that Classic could easily jump to 75% in a matter of days - as soon as investors see their $7 billion wealth starting to evaporate when the network goes into a congestion crisis due to your obstructionism and insistence on artificially small 1 MB blocks.
If your code were good enough to stand on its own, then all of Core's globetrotting and campaigning and censorship would be necessary.
But you know, and everyone else knows, that your cripple-code does not include simple and safe scaling - and the competing code (Classic, Unlimited) does.
So your code cannot stand on its own - and that's why you and your supporters feel that it's necessary to keep up the censorship and and the lies and the snark. It's shameful that a smart coder like you would be involved with such tactics.
Oppressive regimes always last longer than everyone expects - but they also also collapse faster than anyone expects.
We already have interesting historical precedents showing how grassroots resistance to centralized oppression and obstructionism tends to work out in the end. The phenomenon is two-fold:
  • The oppression usually drags on much longer than anyone expects; and
  • The liberation usually happens quite abruptly - much faster than anyone expects.
The Berlin Wall stayed up much longer than everyone expected - but it also came tumbling down much faster than everyone expected.
Examples of opporessive regimes that held on surprisingly long, and collapsed surpisingly fast, are rather common - eg, the collapse of the Berlin Wall, or the collapse of the Soviet Union.
(Both examples are actually quite germane to the case of Blockstream/Core/Theymos - as those despotic regimes were also held together by the fragile chewing gum and paper clips of denialism and censorship, and the brainwashed but ultimately complacent and fragile yes-men that inevitably arise in such an environment.)
The Berlin Wall did indeed seem like it would never come down. But the grassroots resistance against it was always there, in the wings, chipping away at the oppression, trying to break free.
And then when it did come down, it happened in a matter of days - much faster than anyone had expected.
That's generally how these things tend to go:
  • oppression and obstructionism drag on forever, and the people oppressing freedom and progress erroneously believe that Core/Blockstream is "winning" (in this case: Blockstream/Core and you and Adam and Austin - and the clueless yes-men on censored forums like r\bitcoin who mindlessly support you, and the obedient Chinese miners who, thus far, have apparently been to polite to oppose you) ;
  • then one fine day, the market (or society) mysteriously and abruptly decides one day that "enough is enough" - and the tsunami comes in and washes the oppressors away in the blink of an eye.
So all these non-entities with their drive-by comments on these threads and their premature gloating and triumphalism are irrelevant in the long term.
The only thing that really matters is investors and users - who are continually applying grassroots pressure on the network, demanding increased capacity to keep the transactions flowing (and the price rising).
And then one day: the Berlin Wall comes tumbling down - or in the case of Bitcoin: a bunch of mining pools have to switch to Classic, and they will do switch so fast it will make your head spin.
Because there will be an emergency congestion crisis where the network is causing the price to crash and threatening to destroy $7 billion in investor wealth.
So it is understandable that your supports might sometimes prematurely gloat, or you might feel the need to try to comment publicly or privately, or Adam might feel the need to jet around the world.
Because a large chunk of people have rejected your code.
And because many more can and will - and they'll do in the blink of an eye.
Classic is still out there, "waiting in the wings", ready to be installed, whenever the investors tell the miners that it is needed.
Fortunately for big-block supporters, in this "election", the polls don't stay open for just one day, like in national elections.
The voting for Classic is on-going - it runs for two years. It is happening now, and it will continue to happen until around January 1, 2018 (which is when Classic-as-an-option has been set to officially "expire").
To make a weird comparison with American presidential politics: It's kinda like if either Hillary or Trump were already in office - but meanwhile there was also an ongoing election (where people could change their votes as often as they want), and the day when people got fed up with the incompetent incumbent, they can throw them out (and install someone like Bernie instead) in the blink of an eye.
So while the inertia does favor the incumbent (because people are lazy: it takes them a while to become informed, or fed up, or panicked), this kind of long-running, basically never-ending election favors the insurgent (because once the incumbent visibly screws up, the insurgent gets adopted - permanently).
Everyone knows that Satoshi explicitly defined Bitcoin to be a voting system, in and of itself. Not only does the network vote on which valid block to append next to the chain - the network also votes on the very definition of what a "valid block" is.
Go ahead and re-read the anonymous PDF that was recently posted on the subject of how you are dangerously centralizing Bitcoin by trying to prevent any votes from taking place:
https://np.reddit.com/btc/comments/4hxlquhoh_a_warning_regarding_the_onset_of_centralised/
The insurgent (Classic, Unlimited) is right (they maximally use available bandwidth) - while the incumbent (Core) is wrong (it needlessly throws bandwidth out the window, choking the network, suppressing volume, and hurting the price).
And you, and Adam, and Austin Hill - and your funders from the Bilderberg Group - must be freaking out that there is no way you can get rid of Classic (due to the open-source nature of cryptocurrency and Bitcoin).
Cripple-code will always be rejected by the network.
Classic is already running on about 20%-25% of nodes, and there is nothing you can do to stop it - except commenting on these threads, or having guys like Adam flying around the world doing PowerPoints, etc.
Everything you do is irrelevant when compared against billions of dollars in current wealth (and possibly trillions more down the road) which needs and wants and will get bigger blocks.
You guys no longer even make technical arguments against bigger blocks - because there are none: Classic's codebase is 99% the same as Core, except with bigger blocks.
So when we do finally get bigger blocks, we will get them very, very fast: because it only takes a few hours to upgrade the software to keep all the good crypto and networking code that Core/Blockstream wrote - while tossing that single line of 1 MB "max blocksize" cripple-code from Core/Blockstream into the dustbin of history - just like people did with the Berlin Wall.
submitted by ydtm to btc [link] [comments]

End of day summary - 02/28

The Dow fell 380.83, or 1.5%, to 25,029.20, the Nasdaq lost 57.35, or 0.78%, to 7,273.01, and the S&P 500 declined 30.45, or 1.11%, to 2,713.83.
Stocks began the session in positive territory as the market attempted to reverse following yesterday's selloff on the heels of the testimony from new Fed chair Jerome Powell. The early economic data, including the annualized Q4 GDP report and the Chicago Purchasing Manager's report, helped lift the market, but by midday the averages had given up their gains and the final hours of the trading day saw the market swing lower. February broke the market's record string of winning months, as today's slide capped a losing month for all of the major averages. The S&P 500 dropped 1.1%, moving below its 50-day SMA (2736) for the first time this week. The Nasdaq Composite (-0.8%) held up slightly better, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-1.5%) did slightly worse.
Losses were broad on Wednesday, with 11 of 11 S&P 500 sectors finishing in negative territory. The energy sector was the weakest group (-2.3%), moving in tandem with the price of crude oil after the Department of Energy's weekly crude oil inventory report showed that U.S. inventories rose by 3.0 million barrels last week; WTI crude futures dropped 2.1% to $61.66 per barrel. Meanwhile, the heavily-weighted health care sector (-1.6%) also finished behind the broader market, with CELG leading the retreat.
Among the noteworthy gainers was TIVO, which jumped 11% after it reported quarterly results and announced a plan to explore alternatives to "maximize shareholder value." Also higher after reporting quarterly results were AAXN and ETSY, which gained a respective 28% and 20%.
Among the notable losers was CELG, which slid 9% after it received a Refusal to File letter from the FDA regarding its New Drug Application for ozanimod. Also lower was FTR, which plunged 24% after suspending its dividend, and ODP, which fell 9% following its earnings report. LOW fell about 7% after the home improvement retailer's Q4 sales beat consensus estimates but its weak margins caused earnings to miss consensus. VRX dropped 11% after reporting a fourth-quarter revenue miss and downbeat guidance.
Stocks in Asia closed sharply lower, catching up with the selloff in the U.S. after the Powell comments. In Europe, stocks fell, with the Stoxx Europe 600 index SXXP, -0.71% down 0.4%.

Currency

The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.3% at 90.61 after marking a session high just a tick above its 50-day moving average (90.69). The dollar rose to five-week highs on Wednesday, bolstered by an upbeat assessment of the U.S. economy from the Federal Reserve's new chairman, which raised expectations the central bank could aggressively increase interest rates over the next two years.

Treasury

U.S. Treasuries ended the midweek session on a higher note with the long bond pacing the advance after showing relative strength on Tuesday. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was lower at around 2.87 percent at 3:15 p.m. ET, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was lower at 3.13 percent.

Commodity

Oil prices fell more than 2 percent on Wednesday and gasoline futures tumbled, after the U.S. government said crude inventories rose more than expected while gasoline stocks posted a big build instead of the draw that was forecast. U.S. crude inventories rose by 3 million barrels for the week ending Feb. 23, compared with analyst expectations for a build of 2.1 million barrels.

Crypto

YTD

What's tomorrow?

On Thursday, investors will receive a slew of economic reports, including Personal Income and Spending for January at 8:30 AM ET, the PCE Price Index and the core PCE Price Index for January at 8:30 AM ET, weekly Initial Claims at 8:30 AM ET, the ISM Index for February at 10:00 AM ET, and Construction Spending for January at 10:00 AM ET.
In addition, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will appear before the Senate Banking Committee at 10:00 AM ET, wrapping up his semiannual monetary policy testimony.

AH news

  • MNST reports Q4 EPS 35c, consensus 37c
  • CRM reports Q4 adjusted EPS 35c, consensus 34c
Summary scraped from the interweb. Took 1.11 seconds.
submitted by hibernating_brain to thewallstreet [link] [comments]

Going Away Party - Dump Any and All of Your Favorite Links/Threads/Comments Here. Info on how to save for future reference in comments.

Guide on saving/deleting comments

If anyone has any better ideas on how to format or compile this info feel free to let me know or make another thread.

We have intelligence services growing into a technological capacity that eclipse their very governments.* We have been waging war on drugs for nearly 30 years spanning nearly 15 countries with 120,000+ people killed and countless more missing or injured.* We worry about 'terrorists' some 3000 miles away, while cartels behead people with chainsaws right across our very own borders.* We see near autonomous vehicles scan the skies 24 hours a day in third world countries where children dream of drones and mothers sew blankets with images of them on it.* We've seen our commander in chief redefine the definition of what it means to be a soldier so we can blow up a wedding or birthday party in order to kill a single individual who will easily and willingly be replaced by 12 others.* We enjoy the miracle of flight, by forcing ourselves to stand prone and scanned from head to toe to view our naked bodies, before we have one of our many national identification cards stamped and logged of our travel plans.*
We have corporations that have completely bridled the elective process with money literally being defined as speech, including witness the American tax-payer hand over nearly a trillion dollars.* These are dystopian dictatorships that have more power and wealth than any king or monarch could even fathom. We have a tax system so convoluted, so massively complicated that these very corporations can get away with the government paying them taxes* , a system where the rich pay to find and exploit the loopholes. We live in a world where the top 1% controls more wealth than the lower 50% combined.* We have black sites being operated and maintained on American soil where citizens are no longer read their Miranda rights and not a single major media outlet batted an eye.* Every phone call, every email, every text message sent, every keystroke made is logged and an army of tech savvy mathematicians and scientists combs over them to take the pulse of civil disobedience in the nation.* We've seen a single family fund, organize, and execute 2000 Americans by flying our own planes into the symbol of our financial center without a single iota of justice served, yet a plethora of atrocities in its place all while they are embraced in our bosom as faithful allies.* We've seen a nation wide movement against the banks and income inequality turn up in dozens of major US cities, only to have it violently crushed under the guise of sanitation and 'not being able to get to work'.*
We spend nearly half of our entire budget on military defense to fight enemies who use cell-phone detonation, 50 year old rifles and crock-pots to fight us* ,while our roads, bridges, electric grid, ports and communication networks are rotting and amassing an aging problem so monumental it will take centuries to repair.* We've seen an entire generation of children shackled to the banks through an education system forced upon them under the threat of being successful* with little promises and scant results all while being forced to pay into a safety net of social security that they will never see.* We have seen the size of the government grow every year for decades with no end in sight* while our 'elected' leaders are hand picked by elites of business to have their makeup perfected and suits ironed to speak to us about fringe off topic emotional issues that distract us from the fucking circus that is this country.*
Thread here
-fuck_all_mods
-moose- this is for you.
You remind me of the times when links were all reddit was.
Learn from the masses, and then teach them.

Giliens

http://www.thrivenotes.com/your-vote-doesnt-matte
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/josh-silvetaxation-without-represen_1_b_7069384.html
http://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/mgilens/files/gilens_and_page_2014_-testing_theories_of_american_politics.doc.pdf
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SzS068SL-rQ#t=705
http://sunlightfoundation.com/blog/2014/11/17/fixed-fortunes-biggest-corporate-political-interests-spend-billions-get-trillions/

US Atrocities

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trail_of_Tears
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_of_Tonkin_incident
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_MKUltra
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tuskegee_syphilis_experiment
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internment_of_Japanese_Americans
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waterboarding#Contemporary_use_and_the_United_States

Oil wars

Contractors cost+ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VhpfNqeZzUE

2008 Bailout

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/gangster-bankers-too-big-to-jail-20130214
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/secret-and-lies-of-the-bailout-20130104
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2011-11-28/secret-fed-loans-undisclosed-to-congress-gave-banks-13-billion-in-income
http://www.allgov.com/news/where-is-the-money-going/banks-say-thanks-for-the-bailout-now-well-park-our-profits-in-overseas-tax-havens-150316?news=855961
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/09/10/some-95-of-2009-2012-income-gains-went-to-wealthiest-1/

Student loan bubble

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-b-fishbein/9-striking-similarities-b_b_5062840.html

NSA

https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20150407/17213830578/turns-out-feds-actually-tracked-most-international-calls-nearly-decade-before-911-didnt-stop-attack.shtml
https://www.nsfwcorp.com/dispatch/nsa-whistleblowers-for-dummies/
http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/17459-att-tech-blew-the-whistle-on-nsa-spying-in-2006
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-story-of-joseph-nacchio-and-the-nsa-2013-6
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Information_published_by_WikiLeaks#9.2F11_pager_messages
http://www.wired.com/2013/06/nsa-whistleblower-klein/
https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2014/11/fbis-suicide-letter-dr-martin-luther-king-jr-and-dangers-unchecked-surveillance
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-watch/wp/2014/10/29/surprise-controversial-patriot-act-power-now-overwhelmingly-used-in-drug-investigations/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Room_641A
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terrorist_Surveillance_Program
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Narus_(company)

Police

http://www.npr.org/2014/12/15/370995815/supreme-court-rules-traffic-stop-ok-despite-misunderstanding-of-law
http://abcnews.go.com/US/court-oks-barring-high-iqs-cops/story?id=95836
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/volokh-conspiracy/wp/2015/03/23/federal-court-rejects-third-amendment-claim-against-police-officers/
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/ma04/police-killed-people-fbi-data-justifiable-homicides
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/31/sunday-review/race-and-police-shootings-are-blacks-targeted-more.html
Only cops kill pigs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MAwr-9ceDlc

Politicians

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commission_on_Presidential_Debates

Obama

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-metearticle/2008/jul/14/obamas-wiretapping-flip-flop-yes/

Alberto Gonzales

Total Recall https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7IBvZlRqOTw

Economists

Milton Friedman

http://www.econlib.org/library/Columns/y2006/Friedmantranscript.html
Predicts bitcoin: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fYD17h6hlCs

Hayek

http://mises.org/library/pretense-knowledge
Predicts bitcoin: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EYhEDxFwFRU#t=19m23s

Economics

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asset_price_inflation
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aggregate_demand
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rent-seeking
Humans need not apply https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU
The American Dream https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tGk5ioEXlIM

Basic Income

/BasicIncome/comments/2upn9x/the_sidebar_states_no_advocating_violence_how_do/coar2vp?context=3 /Anarcho_Capitalism/comments/2vcoq3/would_taxation_be_theft_if_done_by_an_autonomous/coghp3p /Anarcho_Capitalism/comments/2v2i0l/today_i_found_rcryptoubi_for_discussion_of/ /CryptoUBI/comments/2v2gi6/proof_of_identityproof_of_person_the_elephant_in/ /Anarchism/comments/2v3mno/cryptoubi_my_suggestion_of_how_anarchists_and/

Philosophers

Huemer

The irony of the US criminal justice system. Being in government custody is the only time they are legally obligated to protect you or provide any tangible service. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GlTyOC32-vs&feature=youtu.be&t=868

Watts

Taxation is Obsolete https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OhvoInEsCI0

Voluntarism

George ought to help https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PGMQZEIXBMs
http://taxfoundation.org/article/tax-freedom-day-2014-april-21-three-days-later-last-year
http://www.delawareonline.com/story/opinion/contributors/2014/12/12/cigarette-taxes-killed-eric-garne20317745/
https://mises.ca/posts/blog/but-who-will-build-the-roads/
http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2011/05/11/dealpolitik-lesson-from-microsoftskype-congress-must-fix-corporate-tax-law/
Crypto vs Political Power https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=joITmEr4SjY&feature=youtu.be&t=110

Reddit

/ideasfortheadmins/comments/8h8sy/subscribe_new_users_to_rall_18_reddits_instead_of/c09c9gy
/TheoryOfReddit/comments/1m336u/will_we_ever_see_another_rmarijuanatype_emigration/
/thebutton/comments/31b6sx/can_we_start_calling_pressers_colored_folk/
/modnews/comments/ov7rt/moderators_feedback_requested_on_enabling_public/
/PoliticalModeration/comments/12otmi/reddits_admins_at_the_request_of_mods_from/
/undelete/comments/22yewf/i_have_identified_a_list_of_keywords_that_are/
/PoliticalModeration/comments/nrsde/rpolitics_moderators_ban_my_account_fo
/politics/comments/ibr9new_subreddit_moderation/
/PoliticalModeration/comments/1s8wo4/banned_from_rpolitics_finally/cdv90ko?context=3
/TopMindsOfReddit/comments/32v7p1/i_am_go1dfish_reddit_transparency_advocate/
/blog/comments/1sndxe/weve_rewritten_our_user_agreement_come_check_it/cdzha7p

Gender

Gender Equality Paradox https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5LRdW8xw70
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/kirsten-west-savali/fathers-financial-abortion_b_1015286.html
Full Thread
-go1dfish
submitted by zyklorpthehuman to conspiracy [link] [comments]

Bitcoin reports by banks

I am compiling a list of publicly available Bitcoin reports done by banks. Did I miss any?
Central banks
Reports
Warnings
Commercial banks
Reports
Other
submitted by bobthesponge1 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Futures Slide After US-China APEC Clash, Apple Production Cuts

After a dramatic end to the APEC summit in Papua New Guniea which concluded in disarray, without agreement on a joint communique for the first time in its history amid the escalating rivalry between the United States and China, U.S. index futures initially traded sharply lower as investors digested signs that America-China trade tensions are set to persist, however they staged a modest rebound around the time Europe opened, and have traded mixed since amid subdued volumes as a holiday-shortened week begins in the US.

Last Friday, US stocks jumped after President Trump said that he might not impose more tariffs on Chinese goods after Beijing sent a list of measures it was willing to take to resolve trade tensions. However, tensions between the two superpowers were clearly on display at the APEC meeting over the weekend where Vice President Mike Pence said in a blunt speech that there would be no end to U.S. tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese goods until China changed its ways.
“The comments from Trump were seen as offering a glimmer of hope that further tariff action could be held in abeyance,” said NAB’s head of FX strategy, Ray Attrill. “The exchange of barbs between Pence and Chinese President Xi Jinping in PNG on the weekend continues to suggest this is unlikely.”
US Futures were also pressured following a report by the WSJ that Apple has cut iPhone production, creating turmoil for suppliers and sending AAPL stock 1.6% lower and pressuring Nasdaq futures.
Yet while early sentiment was downbeat following the APEC fiasco, US futures staged a rebound as shares in both Europe and Asia rose while Treasuries declined, the dollar faded an initial move higher as traders focused on the Fed’s new-found concerns over the global economy, and the pound advanced amid speculation that the worst may be over for Theresa May, since the potential for a vote of no confidence in May may be losing traction: the Sun reported that 42 lawmakers have sent letters of no confidence to Graham Brady, 6 more are needed to trigger a leadership challenge

Asia took a while to warm up but made a strong finish, with the Shanghai Composite closing 0.9% and Japan's Nikkei 0.7% higher, helping Europe start the week off strong too as a 1 percent jump in mining, tech and bank stocks helped traders shrug off last week’s Brexit woes. At the same time, stocks fell in Australia and New Zealand, where the Aussie and kiwi currencies dropped after U.S. Vice President Mike Pence attacked China at the weekend APEC summit.
Telecommunications and construction shares pushed Europe's Stoxx 600 Index higher, along with stocks in Italy, where Deputy Premier Luigi Di Maio said the government is ready for dialog with the European Commission over the country’s budget, which however seems just more semantics as Italy refused to concede to European budget demands.
Meanwhile, in addition to confusion over trade, the outlook for U.S. interest rates was also uncertain. While Federal Reserve policymakers are still signaling rate increases ahead, they also sounded more concerned about a potential global slowdown, leading markets to suspect the tightening cycle may not have much further to run and Morgan Stanley to write that "We Sense A Shift In Tone From The Fed."
Goldman Sachs also chimed in, saying it expected the pace of U.S. economic growth to slow toward the global average next year. The bank now sees a broad dollar decline next year, and revised its long-standing bearish view on the Japanese yen and tipped Latin American currencies, the Swedish krona, the Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars and the Israeli shekel to rise.
“We see several changes to the global economic backdrop which, combined with a few negative medium-run factors, point to more downside than upside to the broad dollar in 2019,” Goldman economists said in an outlook report. Goldman's bearish tilt will focus attention on an appearance by New York Fed President John Williams later on Monday to see if he echoes the same theme. As Reuters notes, investors have already cut odds of further hikes, with a December move now priced at 73%, down from over 90%. Futures imply rates around 2.74% for the end of next year, compared to 2.93% early this month.
As a result, yields on 10-year Treasurys declined to 3.08 percent, from a recent top of 3.25 percent while the currency market saw the dollar fade early gains while the pound rebounded from sharp losses last week as Theresa May prepared to appeal to business leaders to help deliver her Brexit deal as the premier fights almost insurmountable Parliamentary opposition.
May said on Sunday that toppling her would risk delaying Brexit as she faces the possibility of a leadership challenge from within her own party. With both pro-EU and pro-Brexit lawmakers unhappy with the draft agreement, it is not clear that she will be able to win the backing of parliament, increasing the risk that Britain will leave the EU without a deal.
Elsewhere, the Australian and New Zealand dollars held on to their declines after Mike Pence's attack on China this weekend fueled concern Sino-U.S. trade tensions will worsen; the yen neared a month-to-date high on the risk-aversion, onshore yuan weakened for the first time in five days.
Treasuries slipped while European bonds were mixed, with core notes slipping and peripherals rising led by Italy. In the U.S., trading activity may be thinned before the Thanksgiving holiday later this week.
In commodity markets, gold found support from the drop in the dollar and held at $1,1220.19. Oil prices suffered their sixth straight week of losses last week, but climbed toward $57 a barrel in New York on Monday. Bitcoin dropped further below $6,000, at one point touching a one-year intraday low.

Market Snapshot
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg:
Asian equity markets began the week somewhat cautious on lingering trade concerns and after disunity at the APEC summit over the weekend which failed to agree on a joint communique for the first time in history due to US-China tensions. ASX 200 (-0.6%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.6%) traded mixed in which nearly all of Australia’s sectors were in the red aside from miners, while Nikkei 225 was positive as participants digested mixed trade data which showed a jump in imports. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+0.7%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.9%) were choppy amid trade-related uncertainty following the verbal jabs between US and China in which Chinese President Xi warned that countries which embraced protectionism were doomed to fail and US Vice President Pence later commented the US could more than double the tariffs imposed on Chinese goods. Finally, 10yr JGBs futures rose to match the YTD high as they tracked the recent upside in T-notes and with the BoJ also present in the market for JPY 800bln of JGBs in the belly to the short-end of the curve. APEC summit ended without an agreement on a joint communique for the first time in its history after China refused to sign amid US-China tensions, while there had been comments from Chinese President Xi Jinping that countries which embraced protectionism were "doomed to failure" and US Vice President Pence later commented that he was prepared to "more than double" the tariffs imposed on Chinese goods.
Top Asian News - China’s Ping An Buys Stake in German Fintech Incubator Finleap - Japan Bank Shares Fall Most in Month After U.S. Yields Drop - Asian Markets Come out of Their Torpor as Stock Gains Accelerate - An Accountant Stirs Debate as India Central Bank Board Meets
Major European indices are in the green, with the outperforming FTSE MIB (+1.1%) bolstered by news that Luigi Gubitosi has been appointed as the new CEO of Telecom Italia (+4.3%). The SMI (-0.2%) gave up initial gains and is lagging its peers, weighed on Swatch (-4.0%) and Richemont (-1.4%) following unfavourable price outlook for both by Bank of America Merill Lynch. Sectors are mostly all in the green, with outperformance in telecom names, while energy names are lower given pullback in oil prices in recent trade and consumer discretionary names are weighed on by Renault (-7.0%), with the company shares extending losses following reports that Nissan’s boss has been arrested in Japan regarding allegations of financial violations. Renault shares are hit given the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi alliance. Elsewhere, BPost (-5.7%) shares are hit following a downgrade at HSBC, while Tele2 (+1.8%), are near the top of the Stoxx 600 after being upgraded at Berenberg.
Top European News
In FX, the Greenback has regained some composure following its downturn at the end of last week amidst soft US data and cautious if not concerned or outright dovish Fed rhetoric (Clarida conscious about contagion from slower global growth, Kaplan envisaging headwinds from rising debt and Harker opposed to a December rate hike), but the DXY remains capped below a key Fib level (96.590) and the Dollar overall is mixed vs major counterparts.
In commodities, Brent (+0.5%) and WTI (+0.1%) are in positive territory, albeit off highs, following market expectations that Saudi Arabia will steer OPEC and Russia to cut oil supply. Meanwhile, Russian Energy Minister Novak said the country is planning to sign an output agreement with OPEC at their December 6th meeting in Vienna. Overnight gains in the complex were driven by reports that Saudi is said to want oil prices around USD 80.00/bbl. Elsewhere, Iranian President Rouhani emerged on state TV and stated that the US has failed to reduce Iran’s oil exports to zero and Iran will continue to sell their crude. Conversely, Gold (-0.2%) prices fell this morning, with traders citing profit taking from last week’s gains, while Palladium is nearing parity with gold as an all-time high of USD 1185.4/oz was hit on Friday. Separately, copper is lower following tension between the US and China at the APEC summit which ended without an agreement on a joint communique for the first time in its history.
It's a fairly quiet start to the week on Monday with the only data of note being the Euro Area and the November NAHB housing market index reading in the US. Away from that, the Fed's Williams is due to speak in the afternoon, while BoJ Governor Kuroda, Bank of France Governor Villeroy de Galhau and his predecessor, Noyer, will all speak at the Europlace Financial Forum. Euro Area finance ministers are also due to gather in Brussels to seek to make progress on Franco-German plans to shore up the currency union.
US Event Calendar
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Brexit was left in a bit of phoney war this weekend. We’re no closer to a leadership contest for Mrs May but it could still happen at any point. The Sun -citing their “extensive investigation” - has concluded that 42 lawmakers have sent letters of no-confidence in the PM (48 needed). Overall though more Conservative MPs are disliking the deal - and will vote against it - than will ask for a leadership battle in our opinion. The consensus that is forming amongst the Conservative MPs who dislike the Withdrawal Agreement is that it can be improved upon. This time next week we will have just had the Sunday EU summit to sign off their side of the deal but its not clear how meaningful tweaks could be made before this and before the agreement goes before UK Parliament in the next 2-3 weeks. The only thing that could be fleshed out is more on the future relationship between the UK and Europe as Mrs May travels to Brussels this week to try to progress on this. That might appease some MPs but likely not enough to help the vote pass. As such my personal view is that May stays on as leader, the EU offer no concession, the vote doesn’t get through Parliament and then the fun and games start. The UK may go back to Europe and ask for specific concessions at this point or we may end up with a path towards a hard Brexit or a second referendum. Quite binary options. For the EU maybe the gamble is to offer nothing and assume the UK Parliament eventually offers a second referendum and voters eventually decide to stay. This increases the risk of a cliff-edge hard Brexit but also one where no Brexit happens at all. This story has a lot of legs left in it.
There was lots in the press this weekend about Brexit but interestingly for me as a credit strategist by day, there was also a fair bit of negative press about credit with some of the more sensational articles suggesting that credit could soon blow up financial markets due to (amongst other things) the weight of US BBBs about to swamp the HY market, record levels of Cov-lite issuance and due to record high US corporate leverage. For us there needs to some perspective. We have been on the underweight side of credit all year, more weighted to a US underweight of late but that’s been more of a valuation play than over too much concerns about immediate credit quality. The US economy remains strong and credit deterioration is likely to remain idiosyncratic until it rolls over. At that point we will have big problems though and last week’s activity made us more confident liquidity will be bad when the cycle turns as we moved a fairly large amount on nervousness as much as anything else. GE, PG&E, plunging oil and the factors discussed above provided a jolt but we don’t think this is enough for now to impact the economy so credit will probably stabilise. However once there is actual broad economic weakness, this last week will be a dress rehearsal for the problems ahead and there will be little two-way activity with spreads gapping wider. However that’s for further down the cycle. For now credit’s main problem
has been it hadn’t responded enough to the pick up in vol. The good news is that this is starting to catch-up and correct. Last week, EU non-fin. IG spread widened by 13bps and HY by 45bps while those on US IG by 14bps and HY by 49bps. Big moves relative to a small down week in equities.
Looking ahead to the highlights for this week, I’d imagine if you’re in the US this will revolve around family, friends and perhaps Turkey as you sit down for Thanksgiving on Thursday. Outside of that we get the flash PMIs around the globe on Friday which in a period of nervousness about the global growth outlook will be scrutinised in thin post holiday trading. Black Friday will also mark the start of Xmas shopping season for retailers. Also worth noting is the European Commission's opinions on the budget plans of the Euro Area countries on Wednesday. While the EC formally has three weeks to provide an opinion on Italy's new fiscal plan following their budget resubmission last week, it's possible that they will issue this for Italy alongside this and thus kick starting the EDP process.
This morning in Asia, markets have kicked off the week on a positive note with the Nikkei (+0.48%), Hang Seng (+0.40%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.22%) all up along with most Asian markets. Elsewhere, futures on S&P 500 (-0.33%) are pointing towards a weaker start. In terms of overnight data releases, the UK Rightmove house prices index fell -0.2% yoy (-1.7% mom), first dip since 2011, led by declines in London (-2.4% yoy). Japan’s October adjusted trade balance stood at –JPY 302.7bn (vs. –JPY 48.3bn) as growth in imports (+19.9% yoy vs. +14.1% yoy expected) outpaced the growth in exports (+8.2% yoy vs. +8.9% yoy expected).
In other news, the US Vice President Pence delivered some sharp rhetoric on China over the weekend where he called upon countries to avoid taking debt from China as that would leave them indebted to China. He also added that the US wasn’t in a rush to end the trade war and would “not change course until China changes its ways.” Elsewhere, the APEC summit ended in disarray on Sunday after the US and China failed to agree on a joint statement, reflecting tensions due to the ongoing trade war. This is the first time since the summit began in 1993 that no joint statement was issued.
Looking back briefly now to last week before we focus on the full day-byday week ahead. Friday was an eventful day for market-moving rhetoric from policymakers, highlighted by Fed Vice Chair Clarida and President Trump. First, the dollar shed -0.52% after Clarida discussed the global economy and said there “is some evidence it’s slowing.” Two-year treasury yields rallied -3.8bps (-11.0bps on the week) and the market removed 6bps of Fed hikes through the end of next year (priced out a total of 16bps on the week). This came despite Clarida’s other remarks, which emphasised the strong US economy and his support for moving policy to a “neutral” level, consistent with the FOMC’s projections. Later in the session, Chicago Fed President Evans said that he too wants to move policy to neutral, and then another 50bps or so beyond that level.
Later on Friday, President Trump injected optimism on the trade policy front by telling reporters that China wants to make a deal and that he may not institute further tariffs. China has apparently offered a list of potential concessions, which could prove to be the basis of a trade deal at the 30 November G20 summit. Even though unnamed White House sources subsequently tried to soften expectations, the market rallied with the S&P 500 up +0.22% (-1.31% on the week). The DOW and Russell 2000 closed -2.22% and -1.42% on the week, though they both rallied on the President’s comments as well (+0.22% and +0.49% on Friday, respectively). After Pence’s weekend comments we should probably discount some of the above optimism.
Other markets were already closed when President Trump’s comments boosted sentiment. The STOXX 600 closed the week -2.20% (-0.20% on Friday), while UK equities outperformed marginally, with the FTSE 100 shedding only -1.29% on the week (-0.34% Friday). This reflected the weaker pound, which retreated -1.13% versus the dollar (+0.41% Friday) and -1.83% versus the euro (its worst such week since July 2017, and -0.38% on Friday). Asian equities were mixed, with the Shanghai Composite advancing +3.09% (+0.41% Friday) on trade optimism and the Nikkei down -2.56% (-0.57% Friday). German Bunds rallied -4.0bps last week, while peripheral spreads widened slightly with Italy leading the way. BTPs sold off +8.8bps (flat on Friday) as the government continued to escalate its confrontation with the European Commission.
It's a fairly quiet start to the week on Monday with the only data of note being September construction output data for the Euro Area and the November NAHB housing market index reading in the US. Away from that, the Fed's Williams is due to speak in the afternoon, while BoJ Governor Kuroda, Bank of France Governor Villeroy de Galhau and his predecessor, Noyer, will all speak at the Europlace Financial Forum. Euro Area finance ministers are also due to gather in Brussels to seek to make progress on Franco-German plans to shore up the currency union.
submitted by rotoreuters to zerohedge [link] [comments]

Bitcoin reports by banks [Update #1]

I am compiling a list of publicly available Bitcoin reports done by banks. Did I miss any?
Central banks
Reports
Warnings
Commercial banks
Reports
Other
submitted by bobthesponge1 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Relatórios de Bancos sobre Bitcoin

Se estiver faltando algum é só enviar o link
Lista
submitted by brasilbitcoin to BrasilBitcoin [link] [comments]

About "the belief that they may be accepted by someone else"

I keep seeing this statement in various forms over years: bitcoins (only) have value because of the belief that they may be accepted by others. One recent example is hidden in the analysis by the FRB of Chicago.
I find this statement misleading in a dangerously subtle way: it is not a belief, it is a fact that bitcoins are accepted in exchange for goods and services. They have been accepted for years, and have never failed at the fundamental, technological level as a payment.
You could argue that we don't know if anyone will be accepting them tommorow, but this is the case with anything. When we say "accepting", we need to consider the actual value it is being accepted at. Have you ever tried redeeming the value invested in gold during an ugly armed conflict? How much value did you get out? Have you ever tried paying with government fiat at times of hyperinflation?
Next time anyone mentions the belief in the context of value of bitcoins, insist on hard facts, not beliefs.
submitted by _niko to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

/r/r4r Drilldown December 2014

/r4r Drilldown

Subreddit Similarity
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submitted by RedditAnalysisBot3 to SubredditAnalysis [link] [comments]

Ripple/XRP News: Google Letter To The FED! Economist Blasts The Fed, Stimulus, Bitcoin & Makes Bold ... RippleXRP News Google Letter To The FED! Ⓥ New Bitcoin Site, Vitalik Acknowledges Cardano, Bitcoin Suisse Staking Tezos & Crypto Kitties BITCOIN PUMP THEN BIG DUMP TO $3,5k?!!  $4,000,000,000,000 PRINTED BY THE FED!!!

Bitcoin Depot already had a couple of machines in Chicago, but now has made the city its second-largest venue, with more of its 200 U.S. kiosks in Chicago than any other location except its ... Bitcoin: A primer by François R. Velde, senior economist Bitcoin is a digital currency that was launched in 2009, and it has attracted much attention recently. This article reviews the mechanics of the currency and offers some thoughts on its characteristics. Chicago Fed Letter Bitcoin reached near $20,000 in mid-December after remaining under $4,000 for about the first half of 2017. But when the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) launched futures trading on bitcoin on ... Chicago Fed Letter, No. 317, December 2013. Bitcoin: A Primer. By François Velde. Bitcoin is a digital currency that was launched in 2009, and it has attracted much attention recently. This article reviews the mechanics of the currency and offers some thoughts on its characteristics. ... Chicago Fed Letter, Bitcoin : A Primer, No. 317 by François R. Velde

[index] [34648] [28020] [8326] [5107] [1483] [17973] [288] [24547] [8194] [2034]

Ripple/XRP News: Google Letter To The FED!

Peter Schiff, Financial commentator and economist has a virtual sit-down with Patrick Bet-David. Visit Europac site https://bit.ly/2LiN9ap Visit Schiff Gold ... Bitcoin is the price in trouble? Fed gives 2.3 trillion more reasons to buy btc with super corrupt deal and unprecedented US jobless numbers. ‍ CRYPTOCURRENCY EXPLAINED BEGINNER COURSE https ... Throughout history, “money” has been many different things. Money has taken the form of seashells, colored beads, feathers, live animals, and large stones. To... A published letter from the Federal Reserve in San Francisco said that the CME/CBOE Futures were directly responsible for the degradation in Bitcoin and cryptocurrency prices. Satoshi Nakamoto’s Original Bitcoin (BTC) Site Set to Go Through Major Transition. Ethereum’s Vitalik Butterin Acknowledges Cardano (ADA) After Chip Announcement. Bitcoin Suisse Targets Click ...

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